It was no less than the proverbial 1st of April shock for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As Turkey's main opposition party claimed big election victories in the key cities of Istanbul and Ankara, the results are being interpreted more as a blow to the Erdogan government than as a win for the secular opposition party. He had hoped to regain control of the cities less than a year after claiming a third term as the president.
But this is the first time that Erdogan’s conservative AK Party (Justice and Development Party) has faced a defeat this crushing, since he came to power 21 years ago.
In Istanbul, a megacity and financial hub of almost 16 million people, the incumbent mayor Ekrem Imamoglu secured more than 50% of the vote and defeated the AK party's candidate by more than one million votes. Imamoglu first won the city in 2019 for his secular opposition party called the Republican People's Party (abbreviated CHP).
Things weren’t any different in the capital city of Ankara either, wherein again the results reflected the anti-Erdogan sentiment sweeping the ballot boxes. The opposition mayor Mansur Yavas left his opponent so far behind that he was declared the winner even before fewer than half the votes were in. The CHP party also won in the cities of Izmir, Adana, the resort of Antalya, Bursa, Balikesir, and Adiyaman.
But what does it all mean for the 70-year-old Erdogan? The worst defeat since being more than two decades in power means it is the “turning point.” The very words used by Erdogan himself in a post-midnight address. Making light of the situation, while addressing the crowds gathered at AKP headquarters, Erdogan said his alliance had “lost altitude,” and “If we made a mistake, we will fix it going further and if we have anything missing, we will complete it.”
But clearly, fixing things won’t be as easy as he made it look like in the address. While the opinion polls had predicted a close contest, the reality is starkly different. Soaring inflation, dissatisfied Islamist voters, coupled with 53-year-old Imamoglu’s rising appeal have given substance to the growing noises for Erdogan’s exit. “Those who do not get the nation’s message, will eventually lose,” said Imamoglu to his jubilant cheering supporters late on Sunday, post results.
The key local elections have made one bold statement; that it might be the beginning of the end of Erdogan’s bulldog grip on Turkey. Under whom, his party amassed sweeping powers, replacing the Prime Minister.
Even during the campaigning, Erdogan said that this would be his last election, as his presidential term ends in 2028; but the opposition claims that another victory would have encouraged him to again revise the constitution to let him contest again. But the current dramatic defeat makes it unlikely.
It’s high time for a new political innings in Turkey. As for the repercussions across the region and in the long term, any change of guard for Turkey means a fresh start in diplomatic relations. Not a bad thing for India, opine political analysts against the backdrop of increasingly deteriorating relations between Turkey and India.
Erdogan’s stance on Kashmir on several platforms and in many instances its support for Pakistan have made any friendly foreign policy difficult. In 2019, Turkey took a strong and very public anti-India stand on Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370.
Last year, on September 10, Turkey opposed the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, because the corridor should not bypass Turkey. Turkey’s long-standing adversary Greece being one of the beneficiaries, the opposition to the corridor was expected from Erdogan. But his defeat back home wasn’t.
In the meanwhile, Istanbul, the nerve centre of Turkey, with a significant portion of the country’s economy, trade, tourism and finance is already under the grip of the opposition. A country with a population of nearly 85 million people, is reeling under the economic crisis.
Reportedly, there are Inflation rates of 67% and interest rates of 50%. While addressing the party supporters Erdogan also promised to use the remaining four years of his term to “renew ourselves and compensate for our mistakes.” He better, since it will not be wrong to predict that these four years are all he got as a president.
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