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John Chambers, the Chairman of the US-India Partnership Forum, provided his perspective on India's journey towards attaining global superpower status. He stressed the significance of both inclusion and innovation as fundamental drivers of India's growth.

 

Chambers highlighted the importance of fostering collaboration between the United States and India to effectively address challenges and capitalize on opportunities for mutual advacement. 

 

He began by expressing his optimism about India's potential for growth, citing the country's large pool of educated engineers and its entrepreneurial spirit as key factors. He emphasized the importance of nurturing startups and small businesses, stating that innovation and entrepreneurship will be crucial for India to maintain its economic momentum.

 

Chambers even lauded Prime Minister Modi's vision and strategic initiatives, suggesting that if current policies remain robust, India could surpass both the United States and China economically in the coming years.

 

Q: How do you envision India achieving superpower status?

 

A: India's path to becoming a superpower hinges on several key factors. Firstly, the country boasts the education of millions of engineers annually, coupled with a pervasive entrepreneurial attitude. Looking ahead, the trajectory of India's growth will heavily rely on the success of startups and small businesses.

 

With the imperative of employing 1.2 million individuals monthly, India must lead in innovation and foster the growth of startups to secure its future prosperity. Prime Minister Modi's visionary approach in outlining strategic policies plays a pivotal role in this journey. Should these policies remain robust over the next decade, India is set to cement its position as the world's leading economy. Projections suggest that India could surpass the United States by 30% and potentially exceed China's economy by as much as 90%

 

Q: Is this the beginning of the end for the political regime in China?

 

A: China's political landscape is characterized by tight control and centralized leadership. The trajectory of its decline, however, is contingent upon the effectiveness of its governance.

 

The United States' efforts to cultivate diplomatic ties with China have been less than optimal. Despite this, the Chinese leadership has demonstrated proficiency in fostering trust, promoting win-win scenarios, safeguarding intellectual property, and nurturing entrepreneurship and startups. Yet, many of China's challenges appear to be internally generated.

 

One critical factor working against China is its shifting demographics, with a projected decline in population from 1.4 billion to 800 million. This prompts questions about citizens' optimism regarding their future prospects and concerns regarding policies limiting family size. 

 

Q: You mentioned that AI will be pivotal in shaping the next phase of the relationship between the US and India. Given recent issues such as India's dispute with Google over its new AI platform, Gemini, and previous challenges with social media companies, how do you believe the Indian government should address these concerns?

 

A: It's evident that some of the issues surrounding social media companies have been self-inflicted. There are legitimate areas where the government should hold major technology firms accountable. Therefore, establishing guidelines and regulations is essential, with careful consideration and input from relevant stakeholders.

 

While some may argue that regulations stifle innovation, I disagree. Reflecting on Cisco's experience with the internet, despite being a key player and eventually becoming the leader in the field, we faced no regulatory issues in our country.

 

Our approach was simple: we only intervened when the government's needs were legitimate, ensuring a mutually beneficial outcome. 

 

Q: Will AI create or eliminate jobs?

 

A: Historically, new technologies have displaced jobs, from mainframes to minicomputers, PCs, client servers, and the internet. However, the increased capabilities these technologies bring have typically led to job creation outpacing job loss. My concern now is the speed at which AI advancements are occurring. It's conceivable that within five years, AI could handle 50% of the tasks currently performed by consultancy firms. Well-run companies may achieve productivity growth rates of 10% annually.

 

Ultimately, the outcome boils down to making more money or reducing the need for manpower. An intriguing example is LePost in France, a postal service that diversified into packaged delivery, pharmaceuticals, and eldercare, demonstrating the potential for adaptation and growth.

 

Q: The four largest startups in India are facing challenges despite global investments. What's your perspective on this?

 

A: Startups that secured funding in 2021 are likely encountering difficulties. During that period, the market heavily rewarded rapid growth without much consideration for profitability or sustainable growth. Many of these companies lack a clear strategy for achieving profitable cash flow and sustainable growth. Mitigating risk is challenging, which underscores the need for investors to exercise caution and sophistication. Looking ahead, startups will play a significant role in job creation over the next decade or more.

 

In the US, the timeline for startups going public has extended to 13 to 15 years, compared to seven years previously. 

 

Q: How do you assess India's ease of doing business?

 

A: In terms of improvement, India scores a perfect 100. However, there is still a considerable distance to cover. The positive aspect is the substantial progress made thus far. Nevertheless, the pace of progress in India's supply chain manufacturing is insufficient.

 

It's imperative for India to achieve manufacturing costs below those of other global regions to remain competitive. There is a pressing need to accelerate efforts to enhance the ease of doing business in India, particularly in the realm of supply chain manufacturing.

 

(Curated from the interview of John Chambers, Chairman, US-India Partnership Forum with Indian Express)