The biggest festival of democracy has kickstarted. Two days ago, 102 parliamentary constituencies from 21 states and union territories went to the polls. The world has its eyes on the outcome of 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
On one hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term at the Centre. Whereas, members of the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) block, which has Congress at its focal point, is trying every possible way to uproot the Bharatiya Janata Party government from the Centre.
Since time immemorial, slogans and promises have hogged the limelight in run-up to the polls. This time, too, the BJP’s assertion of winning over 350 seats has sent ripples to the Opposition clan, thereby creating a substantial space to ponder upon the possibility.
A notable economist and psephologist, Surjit Bhalla, has shared his views on this. Bhalla, whose new book How We Vote gives a sneak peek into the minds of the voters has been the talk of the town.
In an interview, Bhalla, who has tracked elections in India for four decades, has expressed his thoughts on this. He is of the view that the BJP will perform better this time in comparison to 2019 Lok Sabha polls. He has prophesied that the saffron party may clinch 330 to 350 seats. Let’s take a look at the grounds on which Bhalla made this prophecy.
Q: What are your views on the BJP’s claim of winning over 350 seats?
A: In all probability, the BJP will perform better this time than 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Based on statistics, the saffron clan should get 330 to 350 seats on their own. I am not reflecting on the fortunes of its allies. I believe the BJP can achieve this figure on its own. They would likely see a 5 to 7 per cent rise in seats won in comparison to the 2019 results.
Q: Will it be a wave election in 2024?
A: It can be a wave election, which means a single party gains the maximum number of seats and turns out to be the undisputable winner. Every election has the potential to be a wave polls. However, this time, it is difficult to say whether or not it will be a wave election.
Q: How many seats do you think the Congress will win?
A: The grand old party of India may win 44 seats, or 2 per cent less than what it won in the 2014 election when Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister.
Q: Why do you think the Congress is being reduced to such lows?
A: The problems which can be associated with such lows are ‘economy’ and ‘leadership’. In the INDI Alliance, too, there is a lack of a leader. The first prominence is of the economy, even before a strong leadership. And none of them are in favour of the Congress. There is no contest this time. Besides lacking a strong economic base, the Opposition also lacks a leader, who would have a mass appeal or be even half as good as PM Modi.
Q: What do you think about BJP’s south push?
A: Although the BJP does not have a strong base in Tamil Nadu, it will win at least five seats there. And in Kerala, they might secure one or two constituencies.
Q: What are the factors that add to BJP gaining ground in the South?
A: Living conditions of people have improved. India votes on the basis of how much positive impact a party creates on the people. Theories on caste, gender and other secondary factors no longer contribute to a party’s victory in elections. This is precisely what Bill Clinton had said in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid”.
Nowadays, 1 per cent or 14 million are poor by the old definition of poverty. Per capita consumption has improved, lives have improved. Maybe a quarter of the population is poor. Poverty is relative now, no longer absolute.
Q: What is your take on the Opposition using data from CMIE to target the BJP?
A: I denounce data from the think tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) as unreliable. The Opposition selectively uses the CMIE data to target the BJP during election season. The Opposition will always say inflation is high, there are fewer jobs. But there are less percentage of people unemployed than in 2019 in India.
Several authors have questioned the CMIE data. The CMIE data, I think, is one of the most untrustworthy data that can be published anywhere in the world.
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