Between 1990 and 2021, over a million individuals worldwide died each year as a result of antibiotic resistance. A global analysis published in The Lancet journal predicts that more than 39 million people could succumb to antibiotic-resistant infections in the next 25 years.
The analysis forecasts that the highest number of future deaths from antibiotic resistance will occur in South Asia, particularly in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, with an estimated 11.8 million deaths between 2025 and 2050. This information comes from a collaboration of researchers involved in the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project.
Antibiotic resistance, also known as antimicrobial resistance, occurs when drugs intended to eradicate infectious bacteria and fungi become ineffective due to the bugs evolving and developing the ability to withstand these drugs.
The researchers also anticipate high death rates from antibiotic resistance in other regions of southern and eastern Asia, as well as sub-Saharan Africa.
Furthermore, trends from 1990 to 2021 indicate that deaths caused by antibiotic resistance increased by over 80 per cent among individuals aged 70 and above. The authors note that this trend is expected to continue to disproportionately affect older individuals in the future.
According to the researchers, during the same period, deaths due to antibiotic resistance among children under five years of age decreased by over 50 per cent.
"The fall in deaths from sepsis (a bloodstream infection) and antibiotic resistance among young children over the past three decades is an incredible achievement. However, these findings show that while infections have become less common in young children, they have become harder to treat when they occur," author Kevin Ikuta, an affiliate professor at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, US, one of the collaborators on the GRAM Project, said.
"Further, the threat to older people from antimicrobial resistance will only increase as populations age. Now is the time to act to protect people around the world from the threat posed by antimicrobial resistance," Ikuta said.
The authors estimated that improved access to health care and antibiotics could save 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050. They said the study is the first global analysis of antimicrobial resistance trends over time.
According to author Mohsen Naghavi from the IHME, increasing resistance to antibiotics—one of the "cornerstones of modern healthcare"—is a major cause for concern, and the findings highlighted the significance of the global health threat.
"Understanding how trends in antimicrobial resistance deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives," Naghavi said.
The analysis was based on data from 520 million people of all ages in 204 countries and territories, taken from a wide range of sources, including hospital and death records and antibiotic use information.
The authors said the estimates relate to 22 disease-causing microbes (pathogens), 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious symptoms, such as bloodstream infections.
In 2019, deaths related to antibiotic resistance were higher than those from HIV/AIDS or malaria, leading directly to 1.2 million deaths and playing a role in a further nearly five million deaths, according to the first study by the GRAM Project, published in 2022.
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