Passengers may need to brace for bumpier journeys in the skies, with scientists cautioning that turbulence is set to become increasingly frequent as climate change destabilises the atmosphere.
A study by the University of Reading, England has found that global warming is intensifying high-altitude jet streams, the narrow but powerful winds that steer aircraft across continents. The shifting wind patterns, researchers say, are undermining atmospheric stability, creating conditions ripe for clear-air turbulence (CAT), the most dangerous form of turbulence because it strikes without warning.
“Stronger wind shear and weaker atmospheric stability provide ideal conditions for clear-air turbulence,” explained Joanna Medeiros, lead author of the study and a PhD researcher. CAT, unlike turbulence linked to storms, cannot be detected by radar, leaving passengers and crew particularly vulnerable.
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The research, published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, warns that by the century’s end jet stream wind shear could rise by 16 to 27 per cent while atmospheric stability may fall by 10 to 20 per cent. The findings suggest that aircraft flying at around 35,000 feet, the cruising altitude for most commercial jets, will be most affected.
Earlier work by the same university had already recorded a 55 per cent surge in serious turbulence between 1979 and 2020. Professor Paul Williams, a co-author and senior atmospheric scientist, said the implications for air travel are clear. “In light of what we know, it is likely that pilots will need to keep the seatbelt sign on more frequently in the decades ahead,” he cautioned.
Turbulence has already caused severe injuries and, in rare cases, fatalities in recent years. As warming continues to reshape global weather systems, researchers suggest that the once-assumed smoothness of long-haul flights could increasingly give way to sudden, sharp jolts.
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