Weather experts have cautioned that La Niña conditions could re-emerge later this year, potentially bringing a colder-than-normal winter to India.
The US Climate Prediction Center, estimates a 71% chance of La Niña forming between October and December 2025. The probability drops to around 54% between December and February 2026, but a formal watch remains active.
La Niña, the cooler counterpart of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean cycle, often disrupts global weather systems. In India, it is frequently linked with sharp drops in winter temperatures, particularly in the northern regions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said conditions remain neutral at present. However, its climate models, along with international forecasts, indicate a stronger likelihood of La Niña developing after the monsoon season.
“Colder winters are common during La Niña phases, though the warming effect of climate change could soften its impact,” an IMD official told TOI. “Our models show a good probability of La Niña developing during Oct–Dec this year (over 50%). La Niña is usually associated with colder winters in India. While the warming effect of climate change can offset this to some extent, winters during La Niña years tend to be colder compared to years without it. This year overall may thus not rank among the hottest, as rainfall during monsoon has already kept temperatures in check.”
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Private forecaster Skymet also observed that even short-lived La Niña episodes can influence global weather patterns, raising the possibility of heavier snowfall and biting cold in northern India.
A 2024 study by IISER Mohali and Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research further noted that La Niña intensifies cold waves in north India by funnelling icy winds from higher latitudes. This, the study said, results in longer and more frequent cold spells compared to El Niño or neutral years.
“During La Niña, the prominent low-level cyclonic anomaly helps in advecting cold air from the higher latitudes into the country. The frequency as well as the duration of cold wave events are also found to be higher in La Niña years compared to El Niño and neutral years,” the study said.
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