In the lead-up to the Maharashtra Assembly elections, BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has repeatedly highlighted the example of the Dhule Lok Sabha seat as a cautionary tale for voters.
Citing what he describes as the “vote jihad” in the Malegaon Central Assembly segment, Fadnavis warns that fractured voting among Hindu communities could lead to losses for the BJP in the state.
The Dhule constituency became a focal point for the BJP after the party lost the seat to Congress by a narrow margin of 3,800 votes in the last Lok Sabha elections. According to Fadnavis, while BJP candidates led in five of the six Assembly segments within the Dhule parliamentary area, it was the unified voting pattern in the Malegaon Central segment that ultimately handed the seat to Congress.
In Malegaon Central, where a significant Muslim population resides, there was a consolidated push in favour of the Congress candidate, which effectively nullified BJP's gains in other areas and tipped the scales in Congress's favour.
Fadnavis emphasised that this loss by “only 4,000 votes” was due to en-bloc voting in Malegaon Central, contrasting sharply with the more divided voting patterns in other segments.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also addressed this issue, coining the phrase “Ek hai toh safe hai” (Unity ensures safety) in his recent rallies in Maharashtra. He has cautioned against the influence of caste-based politics, claiming that opposition parties are fostering divisions to weaken the BJP’s hold.
Modi argued that the Congress and its Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) allies are using caste politics to fracture unity among Hindu communities, which he believes would prevent Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), and Other Backward Classes (OBC) from achieving socio-economic advancement. At a rally in Dhule, Modi accused the opposition of exploiting caste tensions and urged voters to “stay united” to secure their progress.
Meanwhile, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is working on the ground through its Sajag Raho (Stay Alert) program to foster Hindu unity across caste lines. According to reports, the RSS, along with 65 allied organisations, has been organising meetings across Maharashtra to emphasise the importance of Hindu unity, using the Dhule example to underscore the potential impact of consolidated voting. This campaign aims to reduce caste-based divisions and promote a sense of collective identity among Hindu voters.
This initiative, while not officially endorsed by the RSS, has gained traction among the organisation’s swayamsevaks and their network of NGOs, who are promoting messages of unity under slogans like “Batenge to katenge” (If divided, we’ll lose) and “Ek hai toh safe hai.” The RSS’s work is intended to complement the BJP’s campaign messaging and ensure that Hindu votes are not divided along caste lines.
The BJP, as part of the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra, appears to be doubling down on its efforts to prevent any fragmentation of Hindu votes, especially as they face an energised opposition.
The Mahayuti, an alliance of parties that includes the BJP and its allies, hopes to counter the MVA, which brings together the Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and Shiv Sena factions.
With Dhule serving as a reminder of the impact of divided voting patterns, the BJP and RSS are making a concerted effort to rally support around Hindu unity in these final days before the election.
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