Jammu and Kashmir former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad has announced that his party is planning to contest all Lok Sabha seats of the Union Territory in 2024. The announcement has left political analysts guessing the affect this will have on the Congress and other regional parties. They are of the view that this will be helpful for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which will reap singnificant political dividends, in Jammu region.
Underscoring his plans, Democratic Progressive Azad Party Chief clarified: “Our symbol is not that of the Congress. A lot of people believe that the hand symbol signifies the Congress. However, DPAP’s symbol is not 'hand'.”
Referring to the DPAP, which Azad formed in September 2022, he added: “We will get the symbol one month before voting.”
The upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir will be significant as it marks the first since the revocation of its special status and its division into two Union territories in 2019.
Additionally, the delay in holding assembly elections in the UT since 2014, adds to the complexities of the political landscape of the region.
“People of Jammu and Kashmir along with political parties have been eagerly waiting for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls and Legislative Assembly elections since the abrogation of article 370, from the erstwhile state,” said J&K-based political analyst Zafar Chaudhary.
An anonymous senior Congress leader from J&K believes that the DPAP would consume a fair share from the Congress’ vote bank in Udhampur. However, he along with the Congress are not the major players as far as Kashmir is concerned.
While the BJP secured both seats in Jammu in the 2019 election, the National Conference (NC) party won all three seats in Kashmir. However, victory margins were relatively low in Kashmir, suggesting a competitive landscape.
Azad, being from the Jammu region, is expected to influence the electoral dynamics, especially in Udhampur, which is considered a BJP stronghold.
“The DPAP is likely to benefit the BJP in three of the UT’s and five Lok Sabha seats: Jammu, Udhampur, and Anantnag-Rajouri,” added Zafar Choudhary.
Chaudhary, further, said, “Owing to the absence of the reservation bill and considering opposition parties fighting separately, NC looks far ahead on three seats in Kashmir North and central and Anantnag-Rajouri, whereas BJP is ahead on two seats from Jammu.”
The outcome of the election in this seat, along with seat-sharing arrangements among political alliances, remains uncertain.
The Congress, NC and Peoples Democratic Party are part of the INDI Alliance, but internal rifts in some states could affect their collaboration.
Overall, the election in Jammu and Kashmir is poised to be highly contested, with various factors influencing the final outcome of the elections.
Political analysts also believe that the current Lok Sabha elections in the UT could determine the results of the Legislative elections to be held later this year.
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