The southwest monsoon is experiencing a nascent revival over Maharashtra and is expected to reach Mumbai within the next 48 hours, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecaster clarified that the rainfall experienced by the commercial capital on Monday consisted of pre-monsoon showers rather than the monsoon itself.
This resurgence follows a period of stagnation last week. The IMD noted that conditions have now become favourable for a gradual advance along the west coast and further inland towards central India. Although parts of Maharashtra received light monsoon rain, India's overall rainfall deficit stood at 43 per cent on Monday. OP Sreejith, scientist and head of the climate monitoring and prediction group at the IMD, explained that whilst the monsoon has picked up slightly on the western side, a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal remains absent and is unlikely to develop until the end of the month. Consequently, progress will remain gradual until that system forms and boosts the monsoon's intensity.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at private forecaster Skymet, agreed that whilst the western revival is positive, it should currently be viewed as a brief respite. He echoed concerns regarding the missing low-pressure system on the eastern side, which is not expected until around 29 June. This delay will inevitably slow the monsoon's progress into Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, with its arrival in the capital—which normally occurs around 27 June— now pushed back to the first week of July.
According to the IMD bulletin, the southwest monsoon advanced on 22 June into further parts of the central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Telangana, the remainder of Karnataka, and sections of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar. The meteorological body anticipates further advancement into Mumbai and the remaining sections of these regions over the coming 48 hours. On Monday, the northern boundary of the monsoon stretched through Alibag, Pune, Nizamabad, Dantewada, Balangir, Sundargarh, Chatra, Gaya, and Muzaffarpur.
The monsoon originally arrived in parts of Maharashtra on 8 June, four days after reaching Kerala, but most of the state subsequently saw very little precipitation. This lack of momentum was caused by a dearth of localised weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, compounded by the prevailing El Niño conditions. Typically, the monsoon arrives in Mumbai around 11 June.
Up to 22 June, India would normally expect 106mm of rainfall based on the long-period average (LPA), but it has registered only 60.6mm. Central India has been hardest hit with a 67 per cent deficit, followed by a 40 per cent shortfall in the east and northeast. The southern peninsula faces a 28 per cent deficit, whilst the northwest is down by 15 per cent. Overall, the IMD has projected this year’s total monsoon rainfall to be 90 per cent of the LPA, as El Niño is expected to suppress downpours, particularly during the second half of the season.
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