monsoon-may-hit-northwest-india-by-june-20-imd

The southwest monsoon is likely to reach northwest India around June 20 this year, four to six days ahead of its normal onset period, though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal seasonal rainfall across the country.

According to the IMD’s latest monsoon progression map, the monsoon is expected to touch eastern parts of Himachal Pradesh and northeastern Uttarakhand by June 20. Most parts of the two states are likely to receive monsoon rains by June 25, before the system advances into eastern Punjab and Haryana by June 30.

The entire northwest region is expected to come under monsoon cover by July 5, while western Rajasthan may receive rainfall by July 8.

The monsoon had entered the region on June 27 in 2025, June 24 in 2024 and June 29 in 2023.

The IMD said the southwest monsoon has already advanced into parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and reached southern Sri Lanka. It is expected to arrive in Kerala on May 26, ahead of the normal onset date of June 1.

Also read: Southwest monsoon advances over Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal

Below-normal rainfall likely

The IMD has forecast the 2026 southwest monsoon to remain “below normal” at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent.

The forecast comes amid concerns over possible El Niño conditions, which are associated with weaker monsoon activity over India.

However, meteorologists said rainfall activity could strengthen later in the season if favourable conditions develop over the Indian Ocean, potentially offsetting some impact of El Niño.

Last year, the country received 108 per cent of the LPA rainfall, while northwest India recorded significantly above-normal rain, leading to floods in several areas. Punjab reported a rainfall surplus of 41 per cent, while Himachal Pradesh and Haryana recorded excess rainfall of 39 per cent and 33 per cent respectively.

Despite concerns over a weaker monsoon, reservoir storage levels remain healthy. According to the Central Water Commission, water storage in 166 reservoirs across the country is currently 24 per cent above normal for this time of the year.