As tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China persist, India is set to continue its forward deployment of troops in eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh-Sikkim for a fifth consecutive winter.
Despite ongoing political-diplomatic talks, the trust deficit with China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) remains a significant barrier to de-escalation.
Sources in India’s defence establishment reveal that, although there has been some "progress and narrowing of differences" in talks, the reality on the ground is far from optimistic.
"The trust deficit on the ground with the PLA remains very high," said a top official.
China’s military presence along the 3,488-km LAC remains robust, with Beijing continuing to strengthen forward positions and construct "permanent defences" and infrastructure. The PLA's movements signal that a return to peacetime locations is unlikely in the near future.
India is pressing ahead with preparations to transition from its "summer to winter posture", with the Army undertaking massive "winter stocking" to support the additional troops forward deployed along the LAC.
Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi and senior commanders are set to meet in Gangtok on October 9-10 to review the operational situation.
Political talks, military stalemate
Talks of a possible breakthrough have surfaced in recent months due to a series of high-level bilateral discussions. These include the 30th and 31st rounds of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) on July 31 and August 29.
Additionally, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of a BRICS meeting in St. Petersburg on September 12.
Yet, despite these talks, progress on the ground has been slow. The last meeting of the military corps commanders, held in February, ended without resolution. China once again rejected India's calls for disengagement in two crucial areas: the Depsang Plains, located near the strategic Daulat Beg Oldie airstrip and the Karakoram Pass, and the Charding Ninglung Nallah near Demchok.
"Disengagement at Depsang and Demchok, if it happens, will only be the first step," explained a senior Indian officer. "Until de-escalation and de-induction of troops occur, the threat will remain."
The earlier creation of buffer zones following disengagements at locations such as the Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, and Gogra-Hot Springs, has left Indian troops unable to access 26 of their 65 patrolling points in eastern Ladakh.
These patrolling points stretch from the Karakoram Pass in the north to Chumar in the south. The officer added, "Even the buffer zones were meant to be temporary. China continues to make unreasonable demands and is playing the long waiting game. India must be cautious not to fall into China’s trap."
It is clear that only political and diplomatic talks can pave the way for a breakthrough.
"If the two sides agree to a broad framework, the actual disengagement modalities at Depsang and Demchok can be worked out at the military level," the officer added.
In the meantime, the Indian Army is maintaining "a high level of operational preparedness," ensuring troop readjustments and adequate logistical reserves in each sector of the LAC.
This heightened readiness is designed to respond swiftly to any contingency as the stalemate drags on.
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