As India moves closer to the monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a detailed forecast for May, cautioning that large parts of the country are likely to experience above-normal temperatures and an increased frequency of heatwaves.
Speaking at a virtual press conference on Wednesday, IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said that while northern India is expected to receive more rainfall than usual, other regions—particularly the northwest, central, and northeast—are likely to remain drier than average.
Mohapatra also highlighted sharp weather contrasts during April 2025. The month ranked as the 50th driest April across the country since 1901. However, certain regions—especially in the south and central parts of India—recorded significant rainfall. The southern peninsular region experienced its 13th highest April rainfall on record since 1901, and its 5th highest since 2001. Central India also saw notable precipitation, marking its 28th wettest April.
Despite localised rainfall, temperatures continued to climb. Across India, maximum temperatures in April 2025 were the eighth highest ever recorded for the month, while minimum temperatures ranked ninth highest. Most areas in northwest, central, and northeast India experienced normal to above-normal daytime temperatures. In contrast, some parts of peninsular and east-central India were relatively less affected by the heat.
April also saw a sharp increase in heatwave activity. Western India bore the brunt, with Rajasthan and Gujarat experiencing 6 to 11 days of heatwave conditions—well above the usual 2 to 3 days. In east Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha, 4 to 6 heatwave days were reported, while parts of Maharashtra and surrounding regions recorded slightly below-average numbers.
The most prolonged heatwave occurred from April 3 to 10, affecting Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh. Additional shorter yet intense heatwaves followed later in the month. In total, the country recorded 72 days of heatwave or severe heatwave conditions across different meteorological subdivisions in April.
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Looking ahead, the IMD projects even hotter conditions for May. Most of the country is likely to experience above-normal maximum temperatures, with the exception of isolated areas in the southern peninsular and eastern regions, where temperatures may remain close to or slightly below average. However, minimum temperatures are expected to stay elevated across India.
The number of heatwave days in May is also forecast to rise. The IMD expects 1 to 4 additional days of heatwave conditions in several states and regions, including Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal. Similar conditions are likely in parts of Gujarat, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Telangana, and northern Karnataka.
Rainfall patterns for May are expected to be uneven. Northern India may receive above-normal rainfall, surpassing the long-term average of 64.1 mm. However, below-normal precipitation is anticipated in sections of northwest, central, and northeast India. Elsewhere, rainfall is projected to be within the normal to above-normal range.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are currently neutral. The IMD noted that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to remain in the neutral phase through the northern hemisphere summer. Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is projected to stay neutral.
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