A 1960 research paper that identified November 13, 2026, as a possible “doomsday” date has resurfaced online, prompting claims that the world could end on that day. The prediction, however, was a mathematical projection based on population growth and does not describe an actual apocalyptic event.
The paper, titled Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026, was written by Austrian-born physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research colleagues. It argued that unchecked human population growth could eventually approach infinity, leading to what the researchers described as the population annihilating itself.
At the time, the researchers used demographic data covering more than 2,000 years, from the era of Jesus to 1958, to study the expansion of the human population. Their work came during a period when rapid population growth was a major concern. Families commonly had four children, and those children were also expected to have four children of their own.
When the figures were entered into their mathematical model, the researchers identified what they called “hyper-exponential” growth. In other words, the population was not only increasing; the rate at which it was growing was also accelerating.
Extending that formula into the future produced a mathematical singularity—a point at which the projected population would reach infinity. The model placed that point on November 13, 2026. The date was reportedly selected partly as a joke because it coincided with von Foerster’s birthday.
The researchers used the term “doomsday” for the date because, under the model, the number of people would become infinite and the population would theoretically destroy itself. The broader purpose of the paper was to encourage discussion about resource management and sustainability.
Why the prediction does not apply to the real world
The model relied on the assumption that population growth and fertility patterns would continue without change. Human societies, however, do not develop according to a fixed mathematical curve. Birth rates have shifted significantly as countries have modernised and urbanised, making the original projection unsuitable for describing present-day demographic trends.
United Nations demographers estimate that the global population is currently around 8.2 billion. Current projections indicate that the population could reach approximately 10 billion in the 2080s before stabilising or beginning a gradual decline.
As a result, the November 13, 2026, date represents the endpoint of an old mathematical extrapolation rather than a prediction of a physical catastrophe. There is no factual basis for treating the date as the end of the world, and it is expected to be an ordinary day.
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