Next year is going to be a high-stakes year of political and electoral battles between the Bharatiya Janata Party on the one hand and the Opposition INDIA bloc on the other. Four crucial states and one union territory are scheduled to go for Assembly elections in the coming year. These include West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Union Territory of Puducherry. These states together elect 116 MPs to the Lok Sabha, more than one-fifth of the total MPs.
For the BJP it is Assam that has to be retained, while it will try its luck seriously for the third time in West Bengal. It does not have any stakes in the two southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, although its performance may be noteworthy in Kerala where it holds the key to the final verdict in about 30 Assembly segments.
Except for Tamil Nadu, other three states have incumbent governments for two or three terms. While the BJP and Left Front are in power for two consecutive terms in Assam and Kerala respectively, the Trinamool Congress has been in power in West Bengal for three consecutive terms since 2011.
The BJP has been trying for quite a long time to wrest West Bengal from Mamata Banerjee. The party expects that three terms and 15 years of power may have generated a substantial amount of anti-incumbency against the TMC. Besides some incidents in the past few years like the infamous and brutal rape and murder of a doctor and the 15-year-long fatigue against Mamata might provide some advantage to the BJP.
But Mamata is a tough leader to be tamed, leave aside getting defeated, so easily. Her grip on the ‘Badralok’ remains intact, particularly over the Bengali middle class. Coupled with 27 per cent Muslim electorate, West Bengal will be a challenging task once again for the BJP. The Congress does not have any stake in the state.
Assam again will be quite challenging for the BJP this time. Besides, the 10 years of anti-incumbency, Muslim votes will be an important factor in Assam as well. There are about 30 per cent Muslim voters in Assam, who seem to have mostly switched over their loyalties back towards the Congress. As the Muslim voters have started voting “strategically” for the party that can defeat the BJP, the Congress can hope to look for a better performance in the important eastern state that it lost to the saffron party 10 years ago.
Also read: Challenges galore as Cong completes two years in Telangana
In Tamil Nadu, neither the Congress nor BJP have much at stake as the politics there remains overwhelmingly dominated by the Dravidian parties like the ruling DMK and the Opposition AIADMK. While the Congress is aligned with the DMK and is part of the government there, the BJP is trying to first unite the conflicting factions within the AIADMK, which have vertically split and then hope to align with them. It appears to be quite a tough task and an advantage for the DMK-led ruling alliance.
The Congress can hope to wrest Kerala from the Left Democratic Front this time, which is in power for 10 years. During the 2024 General Elections, the Congress-led UDF performance was impressive, winning 18 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats. Of these, the Congress alone won 14 while its partners won four seats. The ruling LDF and BJP won one seat each. Even in the recently concluded local bodies elections, the Congress performance was outstanding thus making the return of the party look highly probable this time.
Although the UDF had also won an impressive 19 Parliamentary seats in 2019 General Elections, it was unable to follow it up in the Assembly polls, which it lost in 2021. However, the local bodies election results this time give Congress a strong hope and chance.
The Congress has a lot to gain in 2026 Assembly elections. It is already on a strong footing in Kerala and can present a tough challenge to the BJP in Assam. In Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, it does not have any major stakes. If the party manages to fight these elections well, it has a strong probability of winning two states. Unlike in Maharashtra and Haryana where it expected to win but lost badly, the Congress this time will need to be very careful to manage its elections right till the last vote is counted.
The party leaders must take a cue from the BJP, which they often allege only knows how to fight elections. But, in democratic politics fighting and winning the elections is the most important thing to do. Instead of holding it against the BJP, it must learn some good lessons, lest it ends up again with ‘vote-chori’ charges, which not many in the country are ready to buy.
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