aap-protecting-cm-s-image-in-jalandhar-campaign

That the ruling Aam Aadmi Party is faced with an uphill task in Jalandhar by-election is a foregone conclusion.

 

At stake is also the prestige and credibility of the Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, under whose leadership the party could manage to win just 3 of the 13 parliamentary constituencies, when it claimed to sweep Punjab by winning all the seats from here. 

 

A defeat in any assembly by-election can prove politically quite devastating for the party’s image in general and that of the Chief Minister in particular.

 

He is “the” face of the party in Punjab, right since it made its foray in the state for the first time in 2014. It is also a fact that if the AAP survived in Punjab and won a landslide victory in 2022, maximum credit goes to Mann.

 

But the 2024 General Elections came as a severe shock. Although the party performed better than the 2019 General Elections, when only Mann won from Sangrur parliamentary constituency, the current results when compared with the 2022 performance, are deeply disappointing for the party.

 

This time, according to The Tribune, the AAP has decided to fight the Jalandhar West by-election under the leadership of party general secretary in-charge for Punjab Sandeep Pathak, while Mann will continue to be the face of the campaign.

 

Pathak is an ace strategist, who replaced Raghav Chadha as the state in-charge in 2022. Chadha is credited with the 2022 landslide victory in the state.

 

However, after getting elected to the Rajya Sabha, he has remained mostly busy with national politics as he represents the AAP in the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

 

Actually there are five by-elections due in Punjab as four sitting MLAs from Barnala, Chabbewal, Gidderbaha and Dera Baba Nanak assembly constituencies got elected to the parliament. The Jalandhar West by-election was necessitated after the AAP MLA from here Sheetal Angural resigned from the party and joined the BJP.

 

Although he had withdrawn his resignation, that was rejected by the Speaker and the Election Commission of India called for a by-election, which is now scheduled for July 10. The by-election to the remaining four constituencies has not been announced yet. 

 

Jalandhar West has an interesting history. Till 2022, when AAP won from here, the constituency had always swung between the BJP and the Congress. 

 

The trends of the 2024 General Elections also suggest the strong presence of the BJP and the Congress in this assembly segment that falls in the Jalandhar parliamentary constituency, which was won by Congress candidate Charanjit Singh Channi, a former Chief Minister of Punjab. 

 

While Channi won by a huge margin of over 1.75 lakh votes, his lead was very slim from the Jalandhar West assembly segment from where he led by a small margin of 1557 votes only over his BJP rival Sushil Kumar Rinku. 

 

The AAP was a distant third getting only 15629 votes from here. The AAP will have to bridge a gap of at least thirty thousand votes to reclaim the Jalandhar West constituency, which is not an ordinary task, particularly with both the Congress as well as the BJP being robust and buoyed after having got a substantial number of votes from here.

 

Plus, there is a strong anti-incumbency sentiment prevailing against the AAP, which was obvious in the parliamentary elections. 

 

The AAP appears to have strategized the campaign quite carefully and cautiously. While the Chief Minister Mann will continue to be the face of the party’s campaign, it has ensured that his image and credibility is protected. In case of any adverse result, it may not be directly attributed to him, although as the Chief Minister the onus will fall on him.

 

Sandeep Pathak, who is understood to lead the campaign, is known as a brilliant strategist. His personal presence in the lead role of the campaign is expected to help and strengthen the party’s campaign here. 

 

The Congress has always been a strong force to reckon with in Doaba. Jalandhar being the heart of Doaba, the party expects to repeat the parliamentary performance. Moreover, it will be a point of personal prestige for the former Chief Minister.

 

On the other hand, the BJP will not take the battle very lightly. It has the chance to overcome the ignominy of having drawn a complete blank for the first time in many decades in Punjab, as it could not win any seat to the parliament from here, although it got a record vote share of 18.5 percent, its highest so far.

 

A victory in the Jalandhar West by-election can come as a big morale booster, besides helping to salvage the badly bruised image. And the victory for the BJP is very much possible if it fights the election the way it is known to fight.