The tragic death of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar may cause the proverbial seismic shift not only in Maharashtra politics, but at the national level as well. At stake is the future of the “Pawar” legacy, so carefully crafted and carved out by the family patron Sharad Pawar. Even after Ajit split from his uncle, there was not much bitterness within the family. Everything appeared to have been accepted and agreed upon, if not “fixed” in advance.
Unlike in the Shiv Sena, the split in the NCP did not percolate down to the grassroots levels. Although Ajit fielded his wife Sunetra Pawar against Supriya Sule, his own cousin and Sharad Pawar’s daughter from Baramti Parliamentary constituency in 2024 General Elections, there was no acrimony or personal animosity. Sule defeated Sunetra by a margin of about 1.5 lakh votes. In the Assembly elections, Ajit Pawar won from the Baramati segment by a margin of about one lakh votes against his own nephew Yogendra Pawar, who contested on Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction’s ticket.
In hindsight, it looks as if everything was “mutually agreed” upon within the ‘Pawar’ family that the Parliamentary constituency will be left to Sule and the Assembly segment will be left for Ajit only and the contests will just be friendly, as these turned out to be. Both the contests, the Parliamentary as well as the Assembly, were fought within the family, without taking any chance with some outsider.
Ajit Pawar had walked away with the main name of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) along with the symbol, while Sharad Pawar the founder of the NCP had to name it as Nationalist Congress Party-Sharad Pawar and was allotted a fresh party symbol.
Age and health are not on Sharad Pawar’s side. He does hold an important position in the Opposition INDIA bloc, but he is not in a position to navigate his party against the challenges from the ferocious BJP on one side and the Congress on the other. Besides, Pawars have always enjoyed power. The NCP has always tried to remain on the right side of power. When Ajit Pawar joined the BJP-led alliance, the NCP cadres, whether of his own faction or that of the Sharad Pawar faction, remained unchanged in loyalties. They did not feel the split at their level. The workers remained glued to the “idea” of the NCP, whether with Ajit or Sharad.
The senior Pawar was convinced of the fact that Ajit was his natural successor. Although suave and seasoned, his daughter Supriya Sule is not cut for grassroots politics. The senior Pawar did not take Ajit as his challenger even when he “deserted” him. A pragmatic Pawar was of the firm belief that NCP, irrespective of the fact as to who led it, must survive and also remain strong. That was possible only when it was in power and the workers had a voice. Since the NCP did not split at the grassroots, the workers did not face any discrimination from Ajit faction even if they were with the Pawar faction.
The unexpected results of the 2024 Assembly elections in Maharashtra, which were completely different from the Parliamentary elections, were not because of the “vote theft” as alleged by Rahul Gandhi, but mainly because of the “subtle understanding” between the two NCP factions, which appeared to have reached an “unwritten” understanding.
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The senior Pawar was happy that the NCP cadres were not getting disintegrated even if they had been rallying behind his nephew, whom he had accepted as his natural successor. The bonhomie between the two NCP factions was evident during the local bodies elections in Maharashtra in which they had unwritten understanding all across the state.
Had Ajit not died in the tragic air crash, the unity between the two factions was just a matter of time. The uncle-nephew duo was believed to be working out the future course of action, as with whom the “united NCP” will align—whether the NDA or the INDIA bloc.
With the changed circumstances, Sharad Pawar realises that the NCP is faced with an existential threat. He himself, not being in a position to command the ship, does not see any potential leader within the family at this stage. To keep the party together, the senior Pawar may in all likelihood ensure that the Ajit faction continues to remain with the ruling Mahayuti alliance, which will be followed by the merger of the two factions. The united faction is likely to align with the ruling Mahayuti in the state and the NDA at the Centre.
Although Pawar has always positioned himself as a staunch opponent of the BJP, he has from time to time praised Prime Minister Modi. He is already known to have friends in all the parties. Besides, Pawar did not buy the ‘vote chori’ theory of Rahul Gandhi, which he (Rahul) blames for the opposition alliance’s defeat in the Maharashtra assembly elections. He has always kept his options open.
Even if his heart may continue to be with the INDIA bloc, as he finds it ideologically uncomfortable to support with the saffron alliance, the ground realities may prompt him to take a different decision and allow the NCP to continue with the Mahayuti alliance. Because only that arrangement can guarantee the survival of the NCP, as otherwise the party risks and looks at imminent exodus of its leaders and cadres to the BJP and to some extent to the Congress as well.
Ajit Pawar’s untimely death is not only tragic for the family, it has caused an existential uncertainty for the NCP as a whole. Besides, it will also likely impact the INDIA bloc at the national level. Sharad Pawar may not himself join the NDA, but may get less active to the extent not to be seen opposing the ruling alliance, which obviously will have an adverse impact on the INDIA bloc as well. Pawar, after all is a strong pillar on which the INDIA bloc stands even after the 2024 defeat.
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