all-set-for-sound-and-fury-in-bihar-signifying-everything

Bihar may no longer be the second largest state in the country in terms of the numerical strength in the Parliament or the state legislature, but it does remain the second most important state politically, “full of sound and fury”. Before the creation of Jharkhand, Bihar was the second most populous state and had the second highest number of MPs and MLAs after Uttar Pradesh. Now it is the fourth state in terms of the MPs it sends to the Lok Sabha and the MLAs it elects to the state legislative assembly.

As the final battle lines have been drawn, Bihar, this time, may spring some surprise. On the face of it, the contest looks like to be open one between the ruling National Democratic Alliance and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance).

However, with the ace political strategist Prashant Kishor also having thrown his hat in the political ring, the contest has turned more interesting. Kishor has launched his own political party Jan Suraj, which indeed has been finding a lot of traction across the state. How far it will go in terms of getting the numbers in the legislative assembly will only be known on November 14, when the votes will be counted.

Barring a brief interregnum, Nitish Kumar has been ruling the state since 2005, when the NDA replaced the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Nitish, during the last 10 years has swung between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, off and on. However, he has now promised that he will never stray away from the NDA.

He had broken away from the NDA in 2015 and joined the RJD-Congress alliance to form the grand alliance. It indeed did score a grand success. However, he fell apart in 2017 and returned to the NDA fold. In 2020, he contested along with the NDA. Although his party JD-U won just 43, far too few seats than the BJP, which won 74 seats, he was still made the Chief Minister.

But even that much magnanimity could not guarantee the BJP Nitish’s loyalty and he again broke away with the party, and rejoined the RJD-Congress grand alliance in 2022. During all this period, there was one thing constant that whether he was with the NDA or the grand alliance, he continued to occupy the Chief Ministerial chair.

Also read: ECI orders strict enforcement of MCC ahead of Bihar Assembly polls

While being with the grand alliance, Nitish was instrumental, rather the main force behind the constitution of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), the “grand opposition alliance”, to take on the BJP together. He had expected to become the convenor of the INDIA bloc and eventually the opposition’s joint Prime Ministerial candidate, but that did not happen. The Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge was made the convenor and the INDIA bloc kept the Prime Ministerial position open.

Realising that his dream of becoming the Prime Minister, or at least the Prime Ministerial candidate, was out of reach, he again broke away with the INDIA bloc and returned to the BJP-led NDA. Again, he continued to remain the Chief Minister.

Nitish is fighting his last electoral battle. Age is not on his side. He is already running in his 75th year. His party, the JD-U is just a pale shadow of its past. In all likelihood, if the NDA wins the Bihar elections, he may not be let to serve the full term as the Chief Minister.

While for the RJD grand old man Lalu Prasad Yadav, this is going to be the matter of “life and death”, for the BJP, Bihar is no less important. The BJP would like to establish its own foothold independent of any ally in this state. Bihar has handsomely rewarded the BJP in the Parliament, but it has never been able to appoint its own Chief Minister in the state. The BJP apparently expects to achieve that feat this time, as Nitish appears to have reconciled and resigned to his fate.

Lalu Yadav is much older than Nitish at 77. Besides, he has not been in good health either. He has been barely able to attend any meetings or political gatherings. His younger son, Tejashwi Yadav, to whom he has bequeathed his political legacy, is a miserably pale shadow of his father. He is politically not impressive. Unlike his father, he does not possess any gift of gab or oratorical skills. His only asset is being the son and successor of Lalu Yadav. How far that legacy can take him, will be decided in this election, once for all. If the opposition alliance again fails to win the elections, this might mark the beginning of the end for the RJD.

The RJD’s challenge is not only to win the elections, but also to contain and combat an aggressive Congress, which is re-emerging in Bihar. Any gain for the Congress will be a direct loss of the RJD. The Congress is quite unlikely to cut into the BJP or the JDU support base. Tejashwi is not Lalu and he may not be able to stand up to Congress dominance.

Although not any popular, Tejashwi’s estranged elder brother Tej Pratap Yadav would definitely turn to be the proverbial thorn in the RJD’s flesh. He has been disowned by the family and expelled from the party. He is hitting back gently and subtly. In all likelihood, he may join or align with the BJP, which obviously would be a huge embarrassment for the RJD and Lalu’s family.

Election strategist Prashant Kishor has already made a grand entry into the electoral ring. He has been quite active for the last two years, having walked across the nook and corner of the state. Given his experience in fighting the elections, as he has worked for almost each and every party in the country, from the BJP to the Congress, to DMK, to AAP, the TMC etc, he is utilising his expertise and experience in Bihar to the hilt.

He also knows very well that “electoral strategy”, which he has mastered, alone does not win the elections. It requires a certain level of public support as well. His Jan Suraaj is definitely making waves. Whether it will eventually transform into any storm is not difficult to guess. His time may come, but it does not seem to have come as yet.

Bihar electoral outcome will be the most keenly watched contest as the stakes are quite high for three protagonists of the BJP, the JD-U and the RJD who are trying their luck on the electoral stage. This promises to be a show full of sound and fury, signifying everything.

Also read: NDA to finalise Bihar seat sharing after key talks