The Congress has a perennial ‘chief ministerial’ problem everywhere across the country. In absence of a strong leadership at the centre, the regional/ state leaders find it easy to flex their muscles, as compared to the Bharatiya Janata Party. The BJP in stark contrast has been strictly imposing discipline even after benching the veterans like Vasundhara Raje, Raman Singh or Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
Outgoing Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s removal was a foregone conclusion for a long time. Eventually, it happened. He is being replaced by DK Shivakumar, who was in the race right since the day the Congress won the Karnataka assembly elections in May 2023. Shivakumar was the PCC president and hopeful of being appointed the Chief Minister. Although Shikvakumar had put up a strong resistance and show of strength that time, the Congress decided to go along with senior leader Siddaramaiah.
It is exactly after three years that the Congress high command decided and asked Siddaramaiah to quit and make way for Shivakumar. Even when Siddaramaiah was appointed the Chief Minister in May 2023, it was suggested that the arrangement was for about two-and-a-half years only. Shivakumar had accepted the deal on the assurance that he will be appointed Chief Minister after completion of the mid-term of the government.
However, Siddaramaiah had dug in his heels and refused to quit when he completed half of his term. He was repeatedly asserting that he is going to be the Chief Minister for full term. He apparently had Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh experiences in mind where the Congress high command strongly resisted and rejected the demand for change of guard midway. Both Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Baghel managed to complete their respective terms.
While in both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, challengers Sachin Pilot and TS Singh Deo were relatively light weight, in Karnataka, Siddaramaiah had to face the tough challenger in Shivakumar. Shivakumar is not only very close to the party high command, he is known across the country as the best trouble shooter for the party. Wherever the party has any issues or crisis, he is deputed as a trouble shooter. This served him in good stead. When he was jailed in Tihar in a case of alleged money laundering, Sonia Gandhi specially visited him to convey the message that both the party and the Gandhi family stood by him.
Also read: Day after resigning as CM, Siddaramaiah meets Rahul, Sonia
No matter what the agreements or understandings are, once people get power, they stick to it. Siddaramaiah proved to be no exception. He was hoping against hope that the party high command will allow him to complete the full term. He had also announced that he will not be contesting the 2028 assembly elections, an indirect way of saying that the field will be open for Shivakumar after that. If Siddaramaiah would have completed this term, he would be the only Chief Minister in Karnataka to have done so. He is already the longest serving Chief Minister of Karnataka, having remained Chief Minister for 13 years.
Shivakumar obviously could not trust the future that is always full of uncertainties and that too in politics. Who knows what will happen after two years? Karnataka does not have a very good record of re-electing the incumbent governments. Even if the Congress were re-elected under Siddaramaiah’s leadership in 2028, how could he be replaced?
Shivakumar knew all this. It was his last chance to become the Chief Minister. He may lead the party to victory again in 2028. Once the party wins under his Chief Ministerial leadership, he will be the obvious choice once again. That is why he used all his “trouble shooting” skills, this time for himself.
At the same time, the Congress cannot take any chances with Siddaramaiah. He will need to be kept engaged and involved. Shivakumar, may be the “lone wolf”, as he describes himself, Siddaramaiah is an “old fox”. He has already declined to move to Rajya Sabha, telling the party that he is very much keen to stay in the state and its politics. Given his years and experience in politics, he will not be an easy person to handle from outside for the Congress, more so for Shivakumar. In fact, Siddaramaiah joined the Congress as late as in 2006 after resigning from the Janata Dal-Secular.
Siddaramaiah’s removal has strong parallels with the removal of Capt Amarinder Singh as Punjab Chief Minister in September 2021, when the next assembly elections were just six months away. Like Shivakumar in Karnataka, cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu had turned a bête noir for Amarinder in Punjab. The Congress succumbed to Sidhu’s pressure and removed Amarinder. But, unlike Shivakumar, Sidhu did not become the Chief Minister. It was Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit face of the party, who was appointed the Chief Minister. The Congress faced a rout in the assembly election held in February 2022.
The Congress high command realised that it should not have replaced Amarinder and that too so late, when the state was already in election mode. Having learnt from the Punjab experience, the Congress this time changed its horse long before the race. Shivakumar will have two full years at his disposal to prove himself and reorganise the government and the party. And so will Siddaramaiah, who obviously has not given up as yet. He has decided to stay put in Karnataka. He continues to enjoy a lot of support among MLAs and party workers across the state. He might emerge as an alternate power centre, much to the chagrin of Shivakumar, who will need to use his “lone wolf” power and “trouble shooting” skills to ensure a turbulence-free run of his government.
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