A look into history
In the 14 elections held for the assembly segment, including two by-elections, since 1967 when it was carved out, the Shiromani Akali Dal has won this constituency nine times and the Congress five times. The Akalis have lost the constituency continuously since 2012, when Amarinder Singh Brara, aka ‘Raja Warring’ wrested it from the Akali Dal.
Gidderbaha assembly segment has been represented five times by five-time Chief Minister and Akali stalwart, late Parkash Singh Badal, four times by his nephew Manpreet Badal, three times by Raja Warring and once each by another former Chief Minister Harcharan Singh Brar and Raghubir Singh. Raghubir Singh, who won the constituency in 1992, was disqualified after getting convicted in a criminal case in 1995, which necessitated the by-election.
Akali Dal’s fortunes revived in the by-election, which Manpreet Badal contested for the first time and won, while it was the Congress government led by Beant Singh in power. Manpreet won the subsequent 1997, 2002 and 2007 assembly elections from here on the Akali ticket. Akalis stormed to power in 1997 and the foundation for the victory was led in Gidderbaha in 1995.
However, Manpreet fell out with his uncle Parkash Singh Badal and cousin Sukhbir Singh Badal, who was gradually inheriting the Akali legacy and leadership and taking complete control of the party. Manpreet was suspended from the Akali Dal. He formed the People’s Party of Punjab, which made quite an impression in the beginning but cut a sorry figure at the 2012 hustings drawing a complete blank.
Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann was also part of the PPP at that time. He later joined the Aam Aadmi Party ahead of the 2014 General Elections and contested from the Sangrur parliamentary constituency, which he won by an impressive margin. Rest is history.
Thanks to the Shiromani Akali Dal, Sukhbir Singh Badal in particular, Raja Warring managed to defeat Manpreet Badal in 2012. Manpreet who had won from here four times consecutively, came third in 2012 thanks to Sukhbir as he ensured that Warring won by a safe margin asking all his supporters to ensure Manpreet’s defeat.
Warring never looked back. When the Aam Aadmi Party swept almost the entire Malwa, he stood tall and was one of the two Congress candidates who won from the Malwa region. Another candidate was Sandeep Jakhar, the nephew of Sunil Jakhar, who won from the family bastion, Abohar.
The Gidderbaha by-election scheduled on November 13 was necessitated by the election of Raja Warring to Lok Sabha from the Ludhiana parliamentary constituency in the 2024 General Elections. In all likelihood, it is going to be his wife, Amrita Warring who will contest on the Congress ticket.
Challenge for Warring?
Things may be equally challenging for Raja Warring this time as well as they were in 2022 against an AAP wave. There is the AAP government and it is very difficult to fight a by-election against the state government, with entire election machinery at its (government’s) beck and call. Moreover, the AAP has fielded a popular and powerful candidate from here.
The party has fielded Hardeep Singh Dimpy, a popular local leader, who recently defected from the Akali Dal. In 2022, Dimpy had contested from here on the Akali ticket and narrowly last to Warring by a slim margin of 1349 votes, when the party (Akali Dal) had touched its nadir almost everywhere else.
Manpreet Badal, is likely to contest on the Bharatiya Janata Party ticket, the party he joined about a year ago. Manpreet will be taking a great gamble this time. The BJP does not have much support base in the constituency. It will be more of Manpreet’s own battle than that of the BJP, although the party’s support will be crucial.
A do-or die situation for the Akalis
The Akali Dal is yet to announce its candidate. The party is facing its worst-ever crisis right now. A widely held feeling among the people is that in case Sukhbir Badal opts to contest himself, he may prove to be a formidable candidate and might even win. That may script the revival of the Akali Dal. Although it cannot be ruled out, it seems quite unlikely given the situation the party is faced with right now.
The Akali Dal is waiting and watching for the BJP to nominate its candidate. In case it fields Manpreet Badal, then obviously Sukhbir Badal will not contest from here. The Badals will avoid a direct feud amongst themselves at this stage. Moreover, both Sukhbir and Manpreet, of late have built up a better relationship and left the past bitterness behind.
With two more days left for filing of nomination, both the parties will have to announce their candidates before that. Both seem to be waiting for the other one to play its card first.
The battle of Gidderbaha will be the most keenly fought and most keenly watched among all the four constituencies going for the by-election on November 13.
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