Four years ago when Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised the slogan, ‘Ab ki bar, Trump Sarkar’, he did not realise that it was not happening that time.
Eventually, it did happen, but four years later.
In America, ‘Trump Sarkar’ is there once again. However this time, Prime Minister Modi remained more discreet.
That does not mean there was lesser support in India and among Indians for Trump’s second term.
There was a genuine sense of jubilation among most people in India over the victory of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris as the US President. The jubilations have a reason despite Kamala Harris having her Indian roots also, did not get the support of most of the Indians, as they supported Trump.
There is also a section of people in India, who would always like to see Prime Minister Modi being looked down upon.
So much is being said about Prime Minister Modi “not being invited” to attend Trump’s inauguration. Not many, rather just a few, heads of government were at the inauguration ceremony. Most countries, such as India, were represented by their Foreign Ministers only.
In India’s context, given the personal equation, Trump and Modi enjoyed, it was widely anticipated that he might attend the inauguration ceremony. Such things are quite inconsequential in the greater scheme of things.
In the 2020 US Presidential elections, Prime Minister Modi took an unambiguous position in Trump’s favour, which was quite unprecedented. Modi had spoken in Times Square besides previously organising a massive show in his favour in the huge Ahmedabad cricket stadium, with slogans, ‘Ab ki bar, Trump Sarkar’, similar to ‘Ab ki bar, Modi Sarkar’. Trump, however, lost in 2020.
This time, although it was quite clear which way Prime Minister Modi wanted the wind to blow, he did not take any position and remained neutral. But the message to the Indian-origin voters living across the United States was loud and clear that they should support Donald Trump. Most of them did vote for him, despite his stated position on immigration and tariffs.
Trump’s position on immigration and tariffs is understandable. Any nationalist leader, who gives priority to his own country over the others, will do that.
Illegal immigration is the greatest bane for the United States. There are an estimated ten million illegal immigrants living in the US. They may be contributing to work and menial jobs there, but they also drain the economy and resources. No country would allow any illegal immigrant, let allow ten million of them to stay and eventually settle there.
Similarly, Trump’s stand on imposing tariffs may not impact India as much as it is feared.
India also imposes many tariffs on goods from other countries including the US.
Trump, during his campaign speeches, referred to such tariffs and warned of action against them. It is the principle of reciprocity.
However, Trump’s main target is China. China has flooded global markets, including the US, with cheap products. No one can understand it better than India. The import of cheap Chinese products has led to the closure of many industries across India. The same is true for the US.
The liberalisation of trade must not come at the cost of the country's interest. Maybe Trump will set a precedent for other countries that India can follow. Agreed that no country can live in isolation in a globalised world order, no country should get extra and undue advantage either, the way China is getting the advantage and rampaging the manufacturing sector across the globe.
That is precisely why most Indians are celebrating the Trump victory.
If Trump imposes the proposed tariffs, India may be hit to some extent as well, but China will suffer the most from weakening its economy. An economically weaker China will always be an advantage for India.
Trump’s aversion to China is not just economic, but political and strategic as well. While it is the stated US policy to counter and check China strategically and militarily, the approach of different Presidents towards that end varies. During Trump’s presidency, it is certain to be quite proactive. And when it comes to counterbalancing China, militarily and strategically, India becomes the obvious choice.
Some people may have problems getting their kids “US citizenship” by birth, as a lot of people would do that and now Trump has changed that law, but in the greater and long-term interest, the Trump Presidency will always be better for India, probably one of the best in history.
India and the US have not enjoyed a very cordial and dependable relationship in the past. The US was always inclined towards Pakistan. Although a lot has changed, there is a section of deep state within the US, that still has a soft corner for Pakistan.
But, Trump shares similar security concerns as India does. There will be greater convergence on security issues, which is of prime concern to India. This includes both Chinese aggressive expansionism and Pakistan’s continuous support of anti-India forces.
Last but not least, the Trump administration is full of pro-India officials, with no less a person than the Secretary of State Marco Rubio known to be a great India supporter.
There, indeed, is a reason for Indians to celebrate, the ‘Trump Sarkar’.
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