By Vimal Sumbly
There is no doubt that the direct cash transfer of Rs 10,000 each to over one crore women in Bihar worked wonders for the National Democratic Alliance, that it won 202 of the 243 assembly segments in the state legislature in the recently concluded elections.
Populism actually works and not only in Bihar, even in a place like New York, the richest city in the world with an annual budget of $115 billion (over Rs 10,000 crore), with the maximum number of billionaires in any city in the world. The Indian-origin Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani won the prestigious Mayoral election promising free bus travel, free child care, freeze on house rent and bringing down the prices of groceries.
The NDA was not the first one to do it in Bihar. In February 2022 the Aam Aadmi Party won 92 of the 117 assembly segments in Punjab. It indeed was surprising. Such an overwhelming mandate to a relatively new party as compared to the Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal or Bharatiya Janata Party intrigued everyone. Since the AAP was not in power at the Centre, nobody could accuse it of ‘vote theft’ even.
There were multiple factors for the AAP’s sweeping victory. Disillusionment with the traditional parties like the Congress and Akalis and their (AAP’s) promise of a new dawn fascinated and allured people towards it and gave it a chance and they gave it with an overwhelming 3/4th majority in the state legislature.
But more than that it was the promise of paying Rs 1000 to every woman above the age of 18 every month that saw the AAP claim such a landslide victory. Having a well-oiled election machinery and armed with data it had been collecting for months, the AAP volunteers reached every nook and corner of the state filling up forms of women telling them these were for providing them Rs 1000 monthly cash assistance after the AAP formed government in the state.
Also read: ‘Vote theft’ claim benefits NDA more than Congress
The magic worked wonders. The AAP broke all records with an unprecedented mandate nobody expected it to get. Till then the general expectation was that the party may at best manage a simple majority or emerge as a single largest party. Nobody ever imagined that the party would win 92 seats.
The AAP of course failed to fulfil the promise even after about four years of the completion of its tenure. It did, however, provide 300 units of free electricity every month to every household irrespective of the income bar. This has profusely bled an already cash-starved Punjab State Power Corporation Limited, which was already reeling under severe financial strain due to the free power to the agriculture sector started in 1997 by Parkash Singh Badal.
Providing monthly cash assistance of Rs 1000 to about one crore women in Punjab is no mean task. It will require the state to incur a whopping expenditure of Rs 12,000 crore a year. The state is already under a massive debt to the tune of about Rs 4 lakh crore. This is the reason that so far it has skipped this expenditure. As the party enters into the last lap of the five-year term of its government in Punjab, in all likelihood it may start paying Rs 1000 to women every month from next year after the presentation of the budget. However, it might be restricted to the economically weaker sections only and not all the women in the state contrary to the earlier promise of paying each and every woman.
In Bihar, the National Democratic Alliance, precisely the BJP, did the same thing but in a better way. While the AAP only promised to pay and is yet to fulfil that promise, the NDA government already paid over one crore women Rs 10,000 each, ahead of the elections directly into their bank accounts. A large number of women reportedly received the money even after the imposition of the election code of conduct. This was not counted as a violation of the code since the scheme had been announced before the elections. Ongoing schemes do not come under the election code of conduct.
Also read: Dichotomy between ‘vote share’ and ‘number of seats’
Like a mere promise by the AAP in Punjab, made in black and white by filling up special forms, could deliver it an unimaginable landslide victory, direct cash assistance to over one crore women did similar magic in Bihar. Interestingly, like the AAP in Punjab, the NDA in Bihar also secured more than 3/4th majority in the Bihar legislature.
As is being unravelled now, the landslide victory that the NDA got was primarily because of the women voters who voted overwhelmingly for the alliance because of the direct cash benefit. They broke all caste barriers; Bihar otherwise is (in)famous for when it comes to voting.
This is the new form of the “populist welfare politics” that, instead of generalised welfare schemes, targets the individual beneficiaries directly with guaranteed benefit. In this case it was direct cash and that too well in advance, even before casting the vote that helped NDA.
For a populist promise, the potential beneficiaries have to wait for the formation of the government for which there is no guarantee, as happened in case of the AAP promise in Punjab. In Bihar, the NDA ruled out all doubts in advance by making direct payments ahead of elections.
This is not an unusual thing to happen in modern day politics. Kejriwal won in Punjab, Mamdani won in New York and Nitish won in Bihar. May be this is the right thing to happen. At least people at the “end of the queue” do manage to get some direct benefit.
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