The Bharatiya Janata Party’s ambition to emerge as a force to reckon with in Dravidian politics of Tamil Nadu will be put to test on April 19. It was striking to see Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the state nine times before the polls.
It has been learnt that the fate of 950 candidates will be decided by about 6.23 crore voters who are set to exercise their franchise in nearly 68,000 polling stations.
PM Modi set the tone of the election based on Tamilian culture and language. He called the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-Congress over alleged corruption and ‘parivarvad’ politics. The state witnessed intense campaigning for nearly a month starting from March.
Arguably, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls is the only one in recent history in which the BJP set the tone for campaign discourse by mounting attacks rather than being in defence by coming up with disclosures on Katchatheevu issue besides vehemently taking up other matters.
Katchatheevu issue led to a slanging match between the Saffron party, led by a fierce Annamalai and the DMK-Congress combine.
Coimbatore, the hub of western Tamil Nadu is the most keenly watched constituency in the state and BJP’s K Annamalai is slogging to emerge victorious battling against Dravidian giants the DMK and (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) AIADMK. He also faces challenge from the Tamil nationalist, Naam Tamilar Katchi in the four-way contest with anti-DMK-Congress votes split into three.
Modi’s campaign also saw the Katchatheevu issue getting prominence to a great extent. The PM also dwelt on the drug menace, following the arrest of expelled office-bearer of the DMK, Jaffer Sadiq by the NCB and the threat to “eradicate Sanatana Dharma”. In effect, Modi’s campaign was exhaustive in Tamil Nadu and he has addressed rallies in constituencies including Chennai, Coimbatore, Vellore and Tirunelveli.
Barring the 2014 victory of BJP veteran Pon Radhakrishnan from Kanyakumari segment, the Saffron party won in Tamil Nadu, since 1998, only when it aligned with either the AIADMK or DMK, the Dravidian twins.
Since 1998, the BJP won in Tamil Nadu only when it aligned with AIADMK or DMK. In 2014, it was an exception when BJP veteran Pon Radhakrishnan won from Kanyakumari segment.
South Chennai, Tirunelveli, Coimbatore, Nilgiris and Vellore are the seats where the BJP nominees have gone the extra mile to convince voters.
DMK president and Chief Minister Stalin, the star campaigner of his party, led the campaign on the themes of social justice, welfare measures and issues the nation faced owing to the BJP. And AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami too addressed a rally in January and dismissed the idea of a prime minister trying so hard to win polls.
Hence, both the sister Dravidian parties have questioned BJP South push.
In a boost of confidence, Political strategist Prashant Kishor has, however, predicted a big rise in the BJP’s vote share in the state, while the party’s state president K Annamalai, who quit the IPS to join politics and has energised its campaign, has claimed that its seats will be in double digits.
The poll outcome in the state on June 4, when the nationwide counting of all seats will be done, will have wide repercussions.
If Tamil Nadu is a test of BJP’s ambitions and appeal in newer territories, more conventional calculations are in play in other regions in the first phase.
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