bjp-is-on-its-way-to-invade-bjd-s-bastion-in-odisha

The growth trail of the BJP in Odisha finds resonance with the party leadership conviction. Eleven years of a connection and then a sudden fallout does leave room for speculation. 

 

This sounds relatable in the ‘pollscape’ of Odisha. 

 

Allies from 1998 till 2009 — Biju Janata Dal and Bharatiya Janata Party — have contested three parliamentary elections and two state polls in tandem.

 

However, the dynamics have changed ahead of this iteration of the Lok Sabha elections. 

 

Hush-hush regarding the BJP and BJD contesting the general elections in alliance hit a pause with both parties deciding to go solo for the polls. 

 

While neither of the parties has sought a concrete explanation of the connection breach, sources tell us that the seat-sharing deal did not go down well between the two.

 

If rumours surrounding the seat-sharing agreement are to be believed then the BJP tried to cushion its agenda of retaining supremacy at the Centre. 

 

Whereas, the BJD under CM Naveen Patnaik concentrated on retaining its hold on the state.

 

It was learnt that out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP wanted to contest on 14. 

 

And for state polls, the BJD wanted to contest 100 seats out of 147 assembly constituencies.

 

None of the parties agreed to galvanise the other’s political ambitions.

 

Prominent speculation has been doing rounds that the BJP leadership believes they would clinch a maximum number of Lok Sabha seats from the state this time even if they contest single-handedly, and the growth trail of the BJP in Odisha finds resonance with this conviction of the party leadership.

 

In 2009, when Patnaik called off the partnership between both parties, the BJP started to gain ground. 

 

Although the party could not secure a single seat in the Lok Sabha from the state, the BJP received a vote share of 16.89 per cent in the assembly elections.

 

In 2014, with just a single parliamentary seat in its kitty, BJP’s vote share in the state polls jumped to 21.5 per cent. In the same year, the BJP received a 33 per cent vote share in the panchayat elections of the state and secured the second position after the BJD.

 

The charisma of Patnaik was also at its peak in 2014 with the BJD securing 20 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats and 117 seats in assembly polls. 

The BJD had reached its peak that year and from there, the only way that the regional party could go was down. 

 

In 2019, the BJP secured 12 out of 21 seats in parliamentary polls. And the BJP jumped seven seats from 2014 to clinch eight Lok Sabha constituencies of the state.    

 

Henceforth, in 2024, the tables are expected to turn in favour of the BJP, and a decline in the vote share of the BJD may be expected. The regional party has, unequivocally, come a long way in not losing a single election that it has contested since its formation in 1997. 

 

But, riddled with health ailments, Patnaik’s charisma might not be able to restrict the Modi wave in the state this time, as it has managed to do so since 2014 when both the leaders were scaling heights with regards to their popularity quotient.

 

In 2009, BJP was caught off guard with BJD calling off the alliance. Conversely, this time, the ties have been severed from the other end, giving one the space to build on the confidence shown by the saffron camp.

 

Additionally, the odds of the BJD are visible. From anti-incumbency to notable corruption charges to the exodus of leaders from the party, leaving the party in troubled waters.

 

On the other hand, the BJP immediately nominated candidates in 18 Lok Sabha seats after the alliance was called off. And it is leaving no stone unturned to bring a change in the state politics this year.