There is a sense of unease among a sizeable section of Bharatiya Janata Party leaders and workers in Punjab over the ambiguity and uncertainty on part of the high command as to how to go about in the 2027 Assembly elections. The impressive performance of the party in the 2024 general elections, when it got 18.5 per cent votes and led from 23 Assembly segments had given great hope to its cadres who were looking to improve upon this performance in the Assembly elections.
Right now, there appears to be a vertical division within the state unit of the party with one section represented by leaders like former chief minister Capt Amarinder Singh favouring an alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal, an old ally of the party. By and large, those who have joined the party in the recent past and are not ‘dyed-in-wool BJP men’, are seen to be favouring an alliance with the Akalis, while those who have been traditionally with the party are understood to be opposed to it. However, it is not black and white. Even a significant section of the traditional leadership is in favour of an alliance, of course under new seat sharing arrangement.
There is a general perception that in case the BJP does not align with the Akalis, there is a strong probability that most of the leaders who joined the party during the last few years might return to their old parties. This will likely lead to the exodus of prominent and active workers as well. The ground reality in Punjab right now is that the BJP cannot form the government in the state on its own and not even in the near future. The policy of gradually building up the cadre and waiting for the right election may not work here, as the competition is tough. Moreover, the demographics in Punjab do not favour the BJP.
If there is an alliance between the two parties, there is a strong probability that it will sweep the urban constituencies in Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Patiala, Amritsar, Bathinda and other smaller towns. In multi-cornered contests, the alliance will prove to be a formidable force as the votes of the two parties are likely to get transferred to each other this time. The alliance, if it is stitched, based on the 2024 general election trends, can expect to win around 40 seats from the urban and semi-urban areas alone.
In case the two parties opt to go their own way, it will be a direct advantage for the Congress. It will be the reversal of fortunes. In a multi-cornered contest, the Congress has the strong probability of sweeping the urban constituencies. If there is no alliance between the BJP and Akalis, they will lose the psychological advantage of being the favourites. The undecided and swing voters usually go along with the parties they feel are likely to win.
For the ruling Aam Aadmi Party, the biggest handicap is absence of active cadre, besides anti-incumbency that is the bane of every ruling party in Punjab. The AAP has felt the taste of anti-incumbency in 2024 general elections when it could win just three of 13 Parliamentary constituencies. It led from just 33 Assembly segments, a massive fall from the 92 seats it had won in the 2022 Assembly elections. Besides, its vote share came down from 42 per cent in 2022 to 26 per cent in 2024.
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The AAP is hoping to revive its political fortunes in Punjab by providing the promised Rs 1,000 monthly stipend to women. First of all, it may not carry the same impact, as it will be doing it at the fag end of its tenure. Second, such incentives only help once the party has a “core constituency”. All the beneficiaries do not necessarily vote for the party. Even if all of them vote, they alone cannot sail the party through in absence of the core constituency, which the AAP has failed to build.
The Congress’ performance was impressive in the 2024 general elections with the party winning 7 of the 13 Parliamentary constituencies and leading from 37 Assembly segments. The party’s vote share was 26 per cent, same as that of the AAP.
Both the Congress and BJP are quite strong in the urban areas. The Congress had the disadvantage in 2024 against the BJP, as there was a strong surge in support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the impact of the opening of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. The Congress will not have to face that disadvantage in 2027. Ram Mandir issue will be old and there will be no Modi-factor.
The Congress can be at a disadvantage only in case the BJP aligns with the Akalis. Besides generating a positive sentiment for the alliance, it will also lead to consolidation of votes that will be challenging for the Congress.
It really does not require any great political insight to guess what the outcome will be if an Akali-BJP alliance takes place in Punjab or if it does not happen. In case the alliance is formed, it will be a significant and decisive advantage for the two parties together, and if it does not get through, it will be advantageous for the Congress.
The BJP may have certain reservations against the alliance with the Akalis, particularly after the party let it down during the anti-farm law stir. That was because the Akali Dal was at its weakest that time and was not in a position to counter the farmers’ movement. Second, the strong and stringent anti-BJP posturing by party MP from Bathinda, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, is also one of the main reasons why there is an opinion among a section of the leadership that it is better to contest alone than play second fiddle to those, whom it (BJP) considers ungrateful.
But in the long-term interest of the party, the BJP leadership may have to swallow the bitter pill, lest it hands over Punjab to the Congress on a platter.
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