congress-run-by-gandhis-despite-another-defeat

The final takeaway of the 2024 General Elections is that Narendra Modi has become the Prime Minister for the third consecutive term. He led the Bharatiya Janata Party to a substantial score of 240 seats, just 32 short of the absolute majority. Had it not been for the 400+ hype created by the BJP ahead of elections, 240 would not have felt as small as it was felt after the results.

 

Still, the 32 seats loss was compensated by 52 members from other National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners. Modi is now comfortably heading a coalition with the BJP being the main and the dominant partner with 240 members of its own. 

 

Second, the BJP has retained all the important ministries including the Home, the Defence, the Foreign Affairs, the Finance and the Railways. Third, the BJP has retained the post of the Speaker. 

 

The opposition parties would celebrate the prospect of BJP losing some important ministries to the allies as well as the post of the Speaker. The party lost none and retained everything.

 

In comparison, the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) could win only 232 seats, 8 less than the BJP won on its own and 40 short of the halfway mark. 

 

The Congress on its own could still not touch the ‘three-figure’ mark, as it was stuck at 99. The Congress’ score for three elections is still less than 200; 44 in 2014, 52 in 2019 and 99 in 2024 making it a total of 195 only. 

 

The Congress is still “celebrating”, by trying to make it out as a victory for itself and a “political and moral defeat” for the BJP and the Prime Minister Modi, in particular. 

 

But the fact is that the BJP’s worst performance in the last three General Elections since 2014 under Modi’s leadership has still been better than the Congress’ best.

 

The Congress’ best performance after 1984, when it swept elections in the aftermath of Ms Indira Gandhi’s assassination, was in 1991 when it got 232 seats. That was also partially because of the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi during the campaign by Sri Lankan Tamillian militants.

 

After that, it was in 2009 when Dr Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister that the Congress won 206 seats. 

 

Afterwards, Congress under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, whether de facto or de juro, has seen consistent electoral debacles. The party’s spin managers however have managed to project the third consecutive defeat like a “victory” drawing solace from BJP’s less-than-expected performance while trying and managing to downplay its (BJP’s) return to power. 

 

Congress, for the first time in India’s independent history, will remain in opposition for a record third consecutive term. It is the longest period, it will remain out of power.

Changing goals

 

Congress has changed its goalpost. Despite having been a pan-India party and being a centrist party, with an appeal among all sections of people, it has stopped aspiring to win a majority of its own. 

 

Instead, it has surrendered to the regional parties like the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, Nationalist Congress Party and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir. 

 

All these parties were Congress’ bitter opponents not long ago. So much so, the Congress made the United Front government headed by IK Gujaral fall by withdrawing support to it after it refused to drop DMK ministers in the aftermath of Jain Commission revelations which held DMK responsible for supporting Sri Lankan Tamil militants led by the LTTE. 

 

LTTE was responsible for the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi.

 

Right now, the Congress has its independent existence in just nine states, which include Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Gujarat.

 

 In MP and Gujarat, it has been continuously losing elections to the state assembly and almost drawing a blank in the parliamentary elections, but it continues to exclusively occupy the opposition space there.

 

In all major states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra it has been playing second fiddle to regional parties and is dependent on their whims and moods. 

 

It is highly unlikely that Congress can go further than what it got in 2024. At best it may retain the same number of seats in the future General Elections and the worst can be lower than this. In another way, Congress has already peaked and is unlikely to better this performance and that too when its entire leadership believes it to be its “emphatic victory”.

Some mutual interests

 

There appears to be a mutual interest between the ‘Gandhi’ family and the leaders loyal to it, who cannot look beyond what they have already got and achieved. Any senior and outstanding leader in Congress, as long as the family remains in control, can only aspire to be an MP or a minister, if it comes to power. 

 

It does not matter to such leaders, as who is in control of the party as they do not have any grand ambitions, neither to run the government nor the party, as they keep on enjoying whatever perks they get by becoming MPs from here or there, with the hope of ministerial bonus, if the party manages to form a government some time. 

 

That is why the party does not have any concrete programme or proposal. Take for example the 2024 General Election campaign. It was just a “hit and trial” campaign where the party stuck to the theme of “threat to the Constitution”, while actually there was none. 

 

The party did manage to create apprehensions among the vulnerable sections of the society about it. But this cannot be a lasting theme that too against an ideologically rooted and driven BJP.

 

The BJP has managed to convince the people of the country, both, those who support it and also those who oppose it, that the party has a particular agenda, whether nationalism or liberalised economy. The Congress no longer has any well-defined theme. 

 

Although Rahul Gandhi did try to project the party purely as a “secular” and a “socialist” force as an alternative to the BJP, he did not manage to get sufficient dividends. 

 

He will have to stick to this theme, which should not be difficult as his party has the guaranteed support of the minorities, almost 100 per cent. Also, a mere theme alone is not enough as a lot depends on the leadership.

Rahul’s third failure in a row

Rahul has failed a third time in a row to lead his party or alliance to victory. He and his family have still managed to retain the control of the Congress party, rather have further strengthen it. 

 

He has himself become the Leader of the Opposition, the first constitutional post he has occupied. But that does not guarantee that he will certainly go further.

 

He may claim that the NDA is a fragile alliance and that the Modi government may not last long. This may hold for the INDIA bloc as well as it may not hold together for a long time. Gandhi does not have much to offer to prospective allies, while Modi is in power and has a lot to offer to prospective allies from the opposition.

Redemption for the Gandhis, but what about the Congress?

The 2024 General Elections, indeed, have been redeeming for the Gandhi family that it managed to firm up its grip over the party, but these certainly have not been good for the Congress. If “securing” Rahul’s leadership and control over the Congress was the ultimate goal, which it seems it was, then the party has done exceptionally well.

 

Rahul is the Leader of the Opposition. His mother, Ms Sonia Gandhi is the Chairperson of the Congress Parliamentary Party. His sister Priyanka Gandhi is likely to get elected from the Wayanad parliamentary constituency, which Rahul vacated. 

 

All three will be in the parliament. 

 

Besides, they have a compliant party president Mallikarjun Kharge there. It is all good for the Gandhis. 

 

But is it really good for the Congress, only time will tell.