INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance)— the name appeared like a force to reckon with when national and regional parties came together under this one umbrella term with the primary objective to end the rule of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Or, to form a formidable Opposition at the Centre.
While the idea to cobble up parties hailing from varied geographical space and political ideologies raised eyebrows, their common agenda brought the limelight on them.
Behind the glory of the INDI Alliance, questions underscoring seat-sharing complications among these parties lingered all throughout. And with Lok Sabha elections knocking at the door, this suspicion turned into reality.
At a time when INDI Alliance is tottering, one gets reminded of its beginning in June 2023 from Patna, Bihar, under the stewardship of Nitish Kumar and, ironically, the idea of the alliance being in doldrums, too, took off from Bihar with Chief Minister Kumar’s another political volte face.
The alliance which came out as an anti-BJP front had 26 political parties — two national and 24 regional — with Chief Ministers of seven states. Although the Indian National Congress and Aam Aadmi Party, both have national presence, INDI Alliance found the former at its nexus.
After getting drubbed at the hands of Bihar Chief Minister Kumar, the alliance went on to receive a series of jolts with West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee calling off the alliance in the state. However, assuring its integrity at the Centre. And Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann, too, ruled out the alliance in the state. However, the negotiation of seats between the Congress and AAP has worked out in Delhi, Goa, Haryana, Chandigarh and Gujarat.
As much as the Congress’s failure to strike meaningful negotiation with the regional parties is considered as the reason which is making the downfall of the INDIA bloc appear inevitable. The role of the political parties who were or are neutral for neither siding with the Opposition alliance nor with the National Democratic Alliance also has its implications.
In Uttar Pradesh — a state which sends the highest number of Lok Sabha MPs — Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati has confirmed to go solo for the general elections. Mayawati never had good relations with the BJP and her reluctance to join the Opposition block was also clear from the beginning. However, in 2019, her party managed to elect 10 MPs to Lok Sabha on its ticket. The BSP is losing its lustre with each passing year. However, its alliance with the Congress would have served beneficial for both the parties in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls.
On the contrary, the dynamics in Odisha is slightly different from that of Uttar Pradesh. The neutral, ruling party Biju Janata Dal seems keen to become an ally of the BJP, as per the reports in the media state. However, the Congress could have tried to win its favour since its alliance with the BJP is not yet confirmed. The electoral history suggests that the BJD had retained the first position in the state opposed to the BJP both in 2019 and 2014. So if the deal gets sealed with the BJP, then it will solidify the strength of the saffron party making the prospects of the INDIA bloc tougher.
Treading the path of Mayawati, Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, too, has refused to forge an alliance with both NDA and INDI Alliance. However, in 2019 SAD and BJP formed an alliance which allowed the latter to win 2 seats. Failing to seal the deal with the AAP in the state, the Congress could have approached the SAD. After all, double standards are nothing new in the nation’s political space.
With BJP eyeing South, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have their own importance when it comes utilising neutral political parties.
Bharat Rashtra Samiti in Telangana identifies itself to be a third front against both the BJP and Congress. Since the Congress is in power in the state, if BRS extends its support to the BJP, the Opposition alliance will receive another jolt.
And in Andhra Pradesh, the position of the INDIA Alliance seems negligible. The ruling party led by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is acting as a strong force against the Congress in the state. Whereas, the BJP-Telugu Desam Party-Jana Sena have already shown red flag to the INDIA bloc.
Reddy’s position is neutral, as of now, however, the prospect of supporting the Opposition bloc appears banal. Additionally, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen led by Asaduddin Owaisi was a former ally of the Congress. But, after the bifurcation, the party’s position is neutral. However, the alliance deal is impossible in this case, too.
With just a few weeks left for the parliamentary elections, INDIA bloc seems to be in doldrums. It is not a lesser-known fact that nothing in the Congress proceeds without the approval of its leader Rahul Gandhi. He could have calculated every move of the Opposition alliance by stitching the loose ends not only with the allies but also with parties maintaining a neutral stance.
‘Organisational’ setup is one of the reasons which has made the BJP a daunting force in the country’s electoral game. Alas, ‘organisational’ skill seems missing from the Grand Old Party Of India.
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