Once bitten twice shy. This holds true for Iran. Betrayed due to the sudden attack by the United States when negotiations were going on between the two countries, Iran has refuted and rejected the recent claims of US President Donald Trump that negotiations had started between Tehran and Washington and he had called a halt to attack on Iran’s important energy installations.
Moreover, Trump’s announcement came as a surprise to everyone, not just to Iranians, who anyway have multiple reasons not to trust him. Trump changed his stand on the Iran war within 24 hours. First, he announced that the US would hit Iran’s energy plants if it did not allow vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He said the American forces will “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants “starting with the biggest one”.
Iran, which has been hitting hard and fast, warned that it would respond to any such strikes by targeting the vital infrastructure in the gulf region. It already has done so in Qatar. This sent oil prices skyrocketing and world stock markets crashing.
Within 24 hours, Trump came out with a totally different announcement saying the US had halted its plan to attack the Iranian energy supplies for five days. Trump said, “Iran has one more opportunity to end its threats to America and our allies, and we hope they take it. Either way, America and the entire world will soon be much safer.”
There can possibly be two reasons for Trump for making a U-turn within 24 hours. One, he appears to have realised that the war needs to end sooner. There is no domestic support for war within America. One of the senior officials in his administration Joe Kent resigned from the post of Director of the National Counter Terrorism Centre saying there was no imminent danger from Iran. The energy prices have touched the roof. Energy supplies have been badly disrupted. After Trump’s announcement the crude prices came down and the stock markets bounced back. But this is still a temporary relief.
Second reason for Trump to make a “five-day” offer can be an attempt to bide time. Trump never expected the war to escalate the way it has. He understandably believed that it may be a matter of a couple of weeks at the most. Seeing Iran’s retaliation at such a scale, the US is surprised. May be the US is biding time for reinforcements and redrawing its strategy. While Trump announced that the US would not hit Iran’s vital installations, it is already mobilising a massive contingent of men and arsenal towards Iran.
Also read: Iran rejects Trump peace talk claims as oil surges above $100
While he has been making peace offers to Iran, a strong contingent of US marines is already on the way towards Iran. According to news reports, 2200 marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit were on their way from Japan to the Gulf aboard the USS Tripoli. The contingent is expected to reach the Middle East by the end of this week.
A leading international news outlet disclosed that the “Pentagon has also ordered the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, three ships led by the USS Boxer, another amphibious assault ship from California to the region.” Those warships are carrying about 4500 troops including another 2200 marines in the 11th MEU. The US already has about 50,000 troops in the Middle East and the recent reinforcement will take it to 60,000.
Iran has straightway rejected any suggestions that the country was in negotiations with the US. The Iranian foreign ministry made it categorically clear that there have been no direct or indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington, clearly refuting Trump’s claims that the US has been holding “productive conversations” with a top Iranian figure. The Iranian officials described it as “fake news” and “big lies”, saying these claims were deliberately designed to calm the energy markets. Iran has also rejected any suggestion about joint Iran-US control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Besides, the Iranians have a bitter experience as they have already been bitten once. Iran was attacked when the negotiations between the two countries were already going on. It was not an ordinary attack, but a well-planned targeted assault in which the entire leadership of the country, including supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed.
Earlier reports had suggested that Pakistan was negotiating behind the scenes with the Iranian leadership through its army chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff were claimed to be involved in the negotiations, which were said to be in an initial stage.
However, after Iran categorically rejected all such claims and suggestions that there were any “direct or indirect” negotiations with the US, there is little hope of peace being restored in the region very soon. The US in all likelihood is only biding time.
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