dhaka-beijing-axis-poses-a-diplomatic-challenge-to-india

Fishing in troubled waters comes naturally to China. It has been using all the tricks in its bag to expand its footprint in the region and beyond through a mix of coercive and strategic diplomacy. The present friction in the bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh has provided a fresh opportunity for Beijing to make an attempt to alter South Asian geopolitics.

 

An indication to this effect was provided during the recent visit of Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus to China, his first foreign engagement since taking over the interim administration under tumultuous circumstances. The Chinese leadership virtually rolled out a red carpet to him. During the four-day visit, as many as nine agreements, ranging from economic cooperation to cultural exchange, were signed.

 

The two countries also launched negotiations to modernise Mongla Port and initiate construction of a new industrial zone — projects that echo China’s carefully scripted Belt and Road playbook. Yunus’ visit coincided with the current political churn in Bangladesh following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League regime and the subsequent anti-India sentiments sweeping across the country.

 

Political shift

Clearly, the interim regime is signalling a potential shift away from India’s traditional influence in Dhaka. Since Hasina government’s dramatic fall in August last year in the wake of widespread protests and civil unrest, Bangladesh’s newly minted government has deftly peddled a narrative portraying India as a Hindu majority hegemonic neighbour, thereby spreading widespread animosity. This rhetoric found resonance among Bangladesh’s younger generation who have little knowledge of the Bangladesh Liberation War, and India’s pivotal role in it. Yunus’ efforts to normalise commercial, cultural, and military ties with Pakistan have also added to India’s discomfiture.

 

Also read: Yunus wraps up visit to China, seeks more investment

 

Now, the latest visit to Beijing is expected to further deepen tensions between India and Bangladesh. And, China can further entrench its influence in the Bay of Bengal, a crucial maritime region where India, the United States, and Japan have strategic interests. For Beijing, the benefits are two-fold. First, a pro-China Bangladeshi leadership could dilute India’s strategic depth in the neighbourhood. Secondly, by strengthening security ties, Beijing can gain access to ports and logistical hubs, boosting its regional presence. Bangladesh, with its geostrategic location, is a vital piece in China’s Indo-Pacific puzzle.

 

Yunus’ meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and his strong pitch for Chinese investments mark a significant departure from the India-centric approach that defined Hasina’s 15-year tenure. The Dhaka-Beijing axis can pose a significant diplomatic challenge to India as it has the potential to shift the regional balance.

 

Under Hasina’s regime, India enjoyed a very cordial relationship with Dhaka, marked by security cooperation, economic ties, and a shared cultural legacy. The Awami League government was a reliable partner, cracking down on anti-India insurgent groups and never hesitated from aligning with India’s regional vision. The present interim administration, however, appears intent on diversifying its alliances, with China emerging as a key player.

 

The tilt toward China appears to be driven by political and economic considerations. The new leadership, comprising non-Awami League factions, seeks to change the fundamentals of foreign policy after years of India-centric policies under Sheikh Hasina.

 

Recalibrate the policy

Given this changing scenario, India needs to rethink and recalibrate its policy to  arrest the slide in relationship with Dhaka. As the largest neighbour and military-economic powerhouse in South Asia, it should adopt a more nuanced and mature approach, recognising Bangladesh’s incumbent regime. The protracted animosity between the two nations will have far-reaching repercussions for regional security. The current situation in Bangladesh is complex, with rising Islamist elements, communal tensions, and lawlessness. Yunus’ government has been criticised for its handling of these issues, particularly the recent release of Islamist leaders and the lifting of the ban on the Jamaat-e-Islami party.

 

No doubt, India has genuine concerns over the plight of minorities, particularly Hindus, and the growing anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh. However, New Delhi must adopt a more nuanced diplomacy because any attempt to overplay its hand in domestic Bangladeshi politics risks alienating the current regime, potentially eroding trust. Meanwhile, Dhaka must recognise that India's concerns over the rise of Islamist forces and minority safety are not merely rhetorical but reflect broader regional stability imperatives.

 

A more proactive and flexible approach is needed from India to counter balance China’s influence in the region.

 

Strong people-to-people ties

India and Bangladesh share strong people-to-people ties, which have been the backbone of their relationship. These ties have translated into concrete cooperation across various sectors, including trade, energy, connectivity, and cultural exchanges. During the Awami League regime, there were significant achievements on the economic and security front.

 

The government’s pluralistic outlook helped strengthen the relationship with India. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in the subcontinent. The total bilateral trade in 2023-24 stood at $14.01 billion. Tourism and medical treatment are the biggest reasons attracting Bangladeshis to India. The demand for Indian medical visas is the highest, through a highly liberalised process that has been extended uniquely to Bangladesh.

 

The power and energy sector has been another significant domain of cooperation. Despite the political shift, India reaffirmed its intention to continue its collaboration with Bangladesh. There is a need to keep building on existing ties, particularly in the areas of trade, energy, and regional cooperation. India’s cooperation with Bangladesh in development initiatives and connectivity projects remains a priority, as both countries recognise the potential for economic growth through closer collaboration. By focusing on shared interests and maintaining open communication, the two neighbours can ensure that their relationship remains resilient despite political turbulence.