The appointment of Kewal Singh Dhillon, a Jatt Sikh, as the Punjab Bharatiya Janata Party president, has caused ripple effects in other political parties across Punjab, particularly the Congress. The BJP may still be a marginal force in Punjab, but its fortunes are inversely proportional to those of the Congress. If the BJP does well, it has a direct impact on the Congress performance, as the ‘swing vote’ in urban areas fluctuates mostly between the two parties.
The BJP so far was considered to be playing the ‘non-Jatt’ politics by consolidating and rallying other castes and communities around it. However, with Dhillon’s appointment, that narrative has changed. The party has given a clear message that the dominant Jatt Sikh community remains as important for it as for any other party.
Now all the four major political parties, the AAP, the Congress, the BJP and the Akali Dal, have only the Jatt Sikhs at the helm of affairs. While AAP’s state president Aman Arora is indeed a Hindu, he is and he will always remain overshadowed by the powerful and dominant persona of the Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, who continues to remain the only face and force for the ruling party in Punjab.
The Congress already has a Jatt Sikh, Raja Warring as its state president. So has the Shiormani Akali Dal with Sukhbir Singh Badal. For the AAP and the Akalis there is no other option or alternative to the existing leadership of Mann and Badal, respectively. Moreover, both the parties remain wholly and solely dependent on the ‘charisma’, whatever remains of it, of these two leaders.
This leaves the Congress in a dilemma as to whether to replace the incumbent president Warring or continue with him. Congress may get tempted to play the ‘Hindu card’, by appointing a Hindu as the PCC president. There have already been speculations for a long time that the Congress was looking for a Hindu face, since both the PCC president and the Congress Legislature Party leader were Jatt Sikhs.
The assumption that the Congress, which already has a strong Hindu base in urban areas, may further capitalise on it, if it appoints a ‘Hindu’ face as the PCC president, is quite misplaced as in Punjab people rarely vote along caste or sectarian lines.
Rather, there can be a risk instead of an advantage. If the Congress succumbs to the temptation of appointing a ‘Hindu’ face, it stands at great and credible risk of losing a substantial chunk of the Jatt Sikh voters, which may go to the Akalis or the AAP, without gaining any additional Hindu votes. Those among Hindus, who are supporting the BJP, will support the BJP in any case and at any cost, no matter which caste/religion the state president belongs to.
Then there is the Dalit factor also, which undoubtedly has worked well for the Congress in 2022 assembly elections, as always. Just because the party had appointed Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit, as the Chief Minister, the Congress managed to resist the 2022 AAP tsunami in the Dalit dominated Doaba region. The Dalits have traditionally been staunch supporters of the Congress across the state.
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Congress being an all-inclusive party with its base spread across all regions, castes and sects does have great advantages. But this universal presence comes with challenges also as the party has to necessarily draw a balance among all these communities. The Akalis, the BJP and the AAP do not have such problems or compulsions, for obvious reasons.
At this stage, the Congress has three powerful Jatt Sikh leaders including Warring, Partap Singh Bajwa and Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa, a few Hindu leaders like Rana KP Singh, Vijay Inder Singla and Bharat Bhushan Ashu, and the prominent Dalit leader and former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi. The Congress is actually faced with the proverbial problem of plenty.
The status quo was fine for the Congress until the BJP appointed a Jatt Sikh as its state president. The BJP is confident about retaining its traditional support base, which is committed and steadfast. With the appointment of a Jatt Sikh as state president, the BJP may get benefitted only, even if just marginally.
The same cannot be said about the Congress, only because, unlike the BJP, the Congress has a broad base spread across all castes and communities, which it will need to balance.
In all likelihood, the Congress may continue with the existing set up without disturbing the status quo. That is why the Congress general secretary in-charge, Punjab, Bhupesh Bhagel has been repeatedly asserting that there will be no leadership change in the state. And that is the only and best option for the Congress right now. Otherwise, it will end up opening the proverbial Pandora’s Box at a crucial hour, when the assembly elections are a little more than six months away.
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