It is indeed a tough choice for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Punjab whether it should opt for short-term benefit of sharing power with “some” alliance partner or wait and continue to build its cadre for another five years and be in a position to contest on its own.
In Punjab, if the political parties are compared in terms of leaders, the Bharatiya Janata Party has the best pack. Capt Amarinder Singh, a two-time chief minister, Sunil Jakhar its state president having served as the Punjab Congress president as well, Manpreet Singh Badal, besides, its own leadership like Tarun Chugh, Avinash Rai Khanna, Ashwani Sharma and others.
Compare this galaxy of leaders with other parties like the Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal and Aam Aadmi Party. While the Congress does have some influential leaders, yet they fall short in comparison with those in the BJP in stature and appeal. The Akali Dal centres around Sukhbir Badal and to some extent Bikram Singh Majithia also, the AAP is dependent exclusively on Bhagwant Mann.
Despite having a decisive edge in terms of leadership and resources, with the party being in power at the Centre for over 11 years now and so many states across the country, including the neighbouring Haryana, the BJP rank and file appears to be the least confident in the state, even less confident than the Akalis, who are still faced with existential crisis.
Not just the cadres at the grassroots level, even the senior party leadership in the state does not have any clarity as to what the central leadership wants or intends to do about Punjab. Despite the party having done phenomenally well in Punjab during the 2024 parliamentary elections, when it got 13 per cent vote share and led from 23 assembly segments, the party does not appear to be serious on building over that performance.
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Although the BJP could not manage to win any of the 13 parliamentary seats from the state, it remained in close range of victory in Ludhiana, Patiala and Ferozepur where its candidates lost with narrow margins.
This performance of the party was driven mainly by its strong base in the urban areas which are dominated by Hindu voters. It is yet to make inroads into the rural areas, particularly into the dominant rural peasantry—the Jat Sikh community as also the Dalit sections. Punjab has about 30 per cent Dalit population, which professes both Hindu and Sikh faiths. Despite having some prominent Dalit leaders in its fold, the party has not been able to mark any significant presence in this section of the electorate.
Under the current circumstances the party’s only option, if it wants Punjab in the NDA’s kitty in 2027 and deny the Congress another state victory, is an alliance with the Akali Dal. Although the Akali Dal has been on retreat for quite some time, it has started making a comeback. It is still faced with the rebel challenge as quite a number of important leaders have broken away from Sukhbir Badal and formed their own group headed by former Akali Takhat acting Jathedar Giani Harpreet Singh.
So far, the party has been consistently maintaining that it will not go for any alliance in Punjab and will fight on its own. This is apparently to build up its cadre as much as possible. Senior leaders suggest that from that line of thinking, the BJP is planning for the long-run and does not seem to be keen on forming a government albeit with some partner, in the state in 2027. The party has to choose between winning the state, of course along with an alliance partner whosoever it may be, or wait for another election or two to be able to do it on its own like it has done in Haryana and some other states.
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If the BJP goes along with some alliance partners to the 2027 elections, it has to cede a majority of the electoral territory. That means restricting its base and expansion plans. A section of leadership in the party believes that there is nothing against the BJP that it cannot expand in the state on its own. The BJP does not have the “baggage” as that of the Congress like the Operation Bluestar or anti-Sikh riots across the country post Indira Gandhi’s assassination.
If the Congress was accepted by Punjab despite this baggage, the BJP, given Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s special fondness for the ‘panth’, has every reason to be optimistic. The only thing the party has to fight is the “majoritarian perception” the BJP is identified with. This perception is heavily weighing against the BJP in Punjab, probably heavier than the Congress’ baggage.
The Congress is considered and accepted as a secular party and the Operation Bluestar and anti-Sikh riots are now being “forgiven” as a momentary aberration and not a stated policy. Here lies the reason as to why the Congress is still acceptable to the Sikhs over the BJP.
The BJP has done a lot of things for the Sikh community like scraping the “Black List” that barred many Sikh expatriates who had sought “political asylum” abroad from returning to India, reopening of the anti-Sikh riots cases that saw Sajjan Kumar getting convicted and sentenced and Jagdish Tytler being prosecuted, and opening of the “Kartarpur Corridor” among other things.
While BJP appears to be mulling over long-term and short-term options of waiting and allowing the party to grow and expand on its own or aligning with a partner that brightens prospects of victory in the coming elections, its senior ‘immigrant’ leadership remains confused. It is this ‘leadership’ that is keener to align with the Akalis as it neither has time nor patience to wait for the BJP’s long-term strategy.
Under such circumstances, the party risks losing some important leaders, who may start to explore ‘other’ options. In politics, particularly in India, there is no dearth of ‘other options’, the BJP must be aware.
The choice for the BJP is opting for a long-term strategy to build up and expand its base in Punjab and to be in a position to fight on its own, or form an alliance which may brighten the prospects of power, but will certainly restrict its expansion plans.
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