how-china-is-working-to-influence-taiwan-s-election-dynamics

China is employing a multifaceted strategy to sway the political landscape in Taiwan as the island nation approaches its crucial presidential election. Beijing's tactics include not only issuing explicit threats of war and suggesting potential trade boycotts but also extending support to the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT).

The recent incident involving an alarm on all mobile phones in Taiwan, warning of a potential missile flyover, added a layer of tension just days before the presidential and parliamentary elections. The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense clarified the situation, stating that it was a satellite launch by China over Vietnam's airspace. This incident, though not an actual threat, underscored the volatile atmosphere in the region.

Amidst this backdrop, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is openly endorsing the KMT's candidate, Hou Yu-ih, in the hope of preventing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) candidate, Lai Ching-te, from winning. Lai, who has identified himself as a "political worker for Taiwan independence," represents a red line for Beijing, which views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory and seeks reunification.

The relationship between the CCP and the KMT is characterised by pragmatism, as both parties oppose an independent Taiwan and advocate for the concept of "One China," though with different interpretations (the People's Republic of China for the CCP and the Republic of China for the KMT). The CCP's efforts to maintain close ties with the KMT have been ongoing, marked by high-level meetings and interactions.

Economic threats from China, such as potential trade barriers, pose a significant challenge for Taiwan. Despite economic interdependence during the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou, current President Tsai Ing-wen has implemented restrictions on certain exports to the mainland. The possibility of Beijing retaliating with countermeasures, impacting Taiwan's exports, adds another layer of complexity to the election landscape.

Militarily, China has increased its posture around Taiwan, with the Ministry of National Defense in Taipei regularly reporting Chinese military activities in the strait between the mainland and the island. The threat of war has become a central issue in the election campaigns, with both the DPP and the KMT attempting to leverage it to appeal to voters.

In the virtual realm, a different kind of war is underway, marked by fake news and disinformation campaigns. China's suspected cyber army, using platforms like TikTok, aims to manipulate public opinion and foster dissatisfaction among Taiwanese voters.