Delhi is going to be a high-stakes battle for the Aam Aadmi Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party, while the Congress is for certain to play the spoilsport for the ruling AAP. Although the AAP has weakened a lot as compared to 2015 and 2020, it still is in a formidable position to return for the third term.
The BJP is on ascendancy and confident and hopeful to return to power in the national capital after a gap of 25 years.
Interestingly for all three parties, the AAP, the BJP and the Congress the Delhi outcome will have a bearing on their prospects in Punjab. Punjab is the second state after Delhi where AAP has been in power. The assembly elections are still two years away in Punjab.
The party is faced with a strong anti-incumbency right now. In case the party manages to win Delhi again, it will provide a big boost to its cadres in Punjab.
In case the results are adverse, it will have a corresponding impact in the border state and the party may drift further. Also, Punjab does not have a good record of returning the ruling party to power. It happened only once in a long time in 2012 when the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party coalition government returned to power. That way, Delhi's performance is paramount for the AAP’s prospects in Punjab.
For the BJP to return to power after 25 years in Delhi will be a great morale booster. Even when the BJP has managed to win the national elections thrice in a row since the year 2000, it has failed to capture Delhi. Even though in 2014 and 2019 it won 282 and 303 parliamentary seats across the country and all the seven seats in Delhi, it could not win the Delhi assembly elections.
In the 2015 Delhi assembly elections, it won just three seats even though it had swept all the seven parliamentary seats. In 2020 again, even after having won all seven parliamentary seats, it could win just 7 seats.
It again won all the seven seats in the 2024 General Election in Delhi. However, this time it expects to do better in view of the strong anti-incumbency against the AAP, which has been in power in Delhi for eleven years. Besides, the AAP leaders including its convenor and former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia have faced corruption charges also.
Still, the party is not as weak as to assume that it is out of the race. It is very much in the contest, if not ahead, but at a par with the BJP.
In case the BJP manages to win Delhi, its next step would be Punjab. It has already established a very strong presence in the urban areas of the state, which was reflected in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Its only problem is the rural areas, particularly the Jatt peasantry.
In the next two years, left for the elections, the party expects to reach out to this section also. If it is able to defeat the AAP in Delhi, it can hope to do the same in Punjab as well.
For the Congress, the stakes are not very high in Delhi. The party has focused on a limited number of about two dozen seats only. It is strongly banking on the minority and the Dalit votes. The Congress has gone all out aggressively against the AAP, even at the risk of seeing the BJP win Delhi.
This apparently is because the Congress believes, if the AAP gets defeated in Delhi, no matter by the BJP only, it (the Congress) will have a better chance to defeat it (the AAP) in Punjab. Once the Delhi citadel is taken away from the AAP, Punjab will not be very difficult.
Another major reason for the Congress to see AAP defeated in Delhi is that it wants to avenge the Haryana defeat. While the Congress has been maintaining a public posture that Haryana's defeat was because of EVM manipulations, the party insiders attribute AAP contesting independently as one of the main reasons for its defeat. The Congress leaders in this context refer to the AAP backing out from an alliance in Haryana immediately after Kejriwal was released from jail.
The party now wants to get even with the AAP and ensure its defeat even when it means BJP’s victory.
Not only is the national leadership of Congress campaigning aggressively, the entire senior Congress leadership from Punjab has also moved to Delhi for campaigning. Punjab Congress sees hope for itself in AAP’s defeat in Delhi even at the BJP’s hands.
The party believes that once AAP is defeated in its strongest fortress in Delhi, Punjab will be easier. And, as of now, it is only the Congress, which is in a position to defeat the AAP in Punjab.
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