Sri Lanka is a democracy with an elected government. Bangladesh also had a democratically elected government led by Sheikh Hasina. Nepal had a democratically elected government, which was removed after “mass rebellion”. Iran has a stable and “democratically” elected government. Now the government there is under intense pressure to quit. United States President Donald Trump has issued an open threat telling the protesters in Iran that aid is coming. While earlier he had ruled out military intervention, he has now opened that option as well.
While Trump is scripting his own rules across the globe, it will be the most ill-advised thing to do if he decides to deal with Iran the same way the US dealt with Iraq and Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, latest reports quote the US President saying that the “executions” of protesters have eased in Iran and there is no plan of more “executions”. Thus the US, appears to have, decided to wait and watch.
In countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, regime change was not directly blamed on the US. There were popular uprisings with support and backing from “powerful quarters”. But in the case of Iran, the United States has openly come in support of the rebelling protesters. Earlier this the month, the US in a brazen and blatant violation of international rules and regulations abducted the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Now it looks like it is the turn of Iran where protests are rising across the country. The Iranian regime is believed to have resorted to a “ruthless” campaign to crush the protests, even allegedly executing many of them.
What is actually happening on the ground is quite difficult to imagine. Entire reporting by the international media is biased against the Iranian regime. The Western media describes the regime as “obscurantist, autocratic and authoritarian” with Iranian rulers derogatively described as “Mullahs”.
Actually Iranian rulers are “elected”, maybe not according to the democratic standards of the West, but there are regular and periodical elections to elect a President, Prime Minister and Majlis (parliament) every four years. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the supreme leader who succeeded Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989. He enjoys overriding powers the same way the US President has been exercising these days.
Ayatollahs do preach a narrow, sectarian and puritanical version of Islam. The senior Ayatollah was the architect of the Islamic Revolution in Iran that saw the regime of Reza Shah Pahlavi being replaced. The Iranian Islamic Revolution was the precursor to various extremist Islamic movements across the globe. Much of the extremist Islamic terrorism across the globe owes much to the Islamic Revolution of Iran. Islam was never the same after the Iranian Revolution.
Unlike the Arabian countries, Iran has a great and glorious past and history. It remains one of the few continuous civilisations that have survived for over two millennia. Those who have been to Iran would vouch that the Iranian society does not look “ghostly” as if everyone is shrouded in long black robes and women have covered their faces with black hijab. Iranian society is Islamic as well as modern at the same time. The Iranian Islamic regime may seem to be puritanical in theory, but it is certainly not like that on the ground.
Iran has also made great progress in terms of science and technology. Being a self-respecting nation, the country has pursued its nuclear ambitions for a long time. This has provoked global sanctions against the country which has been its undoing. Moreover, Iran has not compromised on its own principles and that is the reason it has always adopted a confrontationist stance towards the United States and Israel.
Also read: Iran’s reckoning, world’s calculations
Behind the Iranian uprising and the open support to it from the United States are the Arabian countries, Saudi Arabia in particular. Saudis have been more pragmatic as compared to the diplomatic rigidity shown by Iran. If Iran abandons its nuclear ambitions, all its problems will be resolved. The current uprising has more economic reasons than any other as the economy has completely been shattered after the sanctions. Inflation is at its peak. The Iranian rial has touched the lowest ever price against the dollar. One dollar is worth a million Iranian rials.
Trade and commerce has completely collapsed in Iran due to the economic sanctions. That is the reason most of the traders are supporting the current uprising. The Iranian bazaars remain shut in support of the uprising. In fact, it is the small and medium traders like the shopkeepers who are believed to have sustained the uprising.
Unlike the regimes in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Nepal, the Iranian ruling establishment is strong and powerful. It has complete control over the country’s defence forces. If the reports of “mass killings” and “mass executions” of the rebellious protesters are true, it cannot be without support from the Iranian Army, which is under complete control of the regime. The reports of mass executions are however disputed.
If the US President commits the mistake of military intervention in Iran, hopefully he should not, it may prove to be worse than what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran certainly is not like those countries. It has always been politically stable and stronger.
For India it is a tricky situation to take a position on Iran. Although Iran has never been categorical or unambiguous over its diplomatic positioning, its overall stance is considered mostly to be pro-India. Iran played a crucial role during the famous 1994 OIC Resolution on Kashmir against India. Iran refused to back the resolution suggesting that India and Pakistan, being both friends of Iran, should resolve it mutually. This was a major diplomatic development that virtually killed the OIC sponsored resolution moved at the behest of Pakistan. There have been several occasions, when Iran has taken a position in favour of India.
At the same time, Supreme leader Khamenei has from time to time issued token statements in favour of Kashmiri separatists. These statements are, however, considered as merely rhetorical without any intention to follow these up.
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