VIMAL SUMBLY
Shiromani Akali Dal president Sukhbir Singh Badal’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sparked speculation about the possibility of the two old alliance partners coming together again ahead of the crucial Punjab Assembly elections. The meeting has also alerted other political parties to the possibility of advancing the Punjab Assembly elections from February 2027 to November 2026. This is believed to be one of the reasons the two parties have started a dialogue.
The BJP and the Akali Dal have been old allies for decades. In the post-militancy era, the alliance was seen more as a social necessity than as political expediency, although the Akali Dal has needed the BJP to win elections in Punjab. Since the Akali Dal is a panthic organisation representing Sikhs and the BJP is largely seen as a Hindu-dominated organisation, the Akali-BJP alliance was viewed, rightly so, as representative of the two communities.
However, the alliance broke down during the farmers’ agitation in 2021 against the Centre’s agricultural laws. Not many people know or remember that Shiromani Akali Dal patron and former Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal was among the first leaders and allies to welcome the three central agricultural laws, which were, in fact, intended to benefit farmers. But as the narrative against the laws gained ground and the BJP failed to counter it effectively, the already cornered Akalis began feeling the pressure from their traditional Jat Sikh farming community supporters. Eventually, the Akalis parted ways with the BJP.
Since then, the two parties have largely avoided commenting on or criticising each other, except for a speech by Akali MP and Sukhbir Singh Badal’s wife, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, in Parliament during the debate on the Waqf Bill. Her tone was quite aggressive and was seen as blatantly touching upon Hindu sentiments and sensitivities. That speech may haunt her for a long time, particularly during the next parliamentary elections.
The two parties almost formed an alliance in Punjab again ahead of the 2024 General Elections. However, the negotiations reportedly broke down after the Akali Dal made some demands that the BJP considered “unrealistic”. Otherwise, the two parties had almost finalised the agreement. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who was handling the negotiations, was reportedly so upset that he asked the then Punjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar to immediately announce that the BJP would contest the parliamentary elections on its own in Punjab. Had the two parties allied, they could have won at least six parliamentary seats between them if their vote shares were combined, and possibly two more because of the positive sentiment such an alliance would have generated.
While the Akali Dal remains largely marginalised, it has started making a comeback of sorts. Party rallies are drawing good crowds across the state. The party appears to have won back some of its traditional voters who had shifted to the Aam Aadmi Party. However, the Akalis still have a long way to go to return to their 2012 position, if they ever manage to do so.
The BJP, despite its grandstanding and bravado, remains a marginal force in Punjab and is largely confined to urban pockets. The 18.5 per cent vote share it secured in the parliamentary elections was scattered across the state, which is why it failed to win a single constituency. Moreover, the issues in an Assembly election will be different from those in a parliamentary election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi may not be the same factor, nor will the Ram Mandir issue have the same impact.
If the Akalis and the BJP are able to forge an alliance, it will be a formidable combination. Otherwise, for now, the main contest appears to be between the ruling AAP and the principal opposition party, the Congress. Despite its serious internal rumblings, the Congress does have a good chance of challenging the AAP. The Akalis and the BJP together could turn the election into an almost evenly balanced triangular contest.
So far, BJP leaders have consistently maintained that the party will contest the elections on its own. However, a lot has changed in recent months. There appears to be serious introspection within the BJP in the aftermath of the CJP protests, which led to the dropping of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, followed by the party’s shock defeat in the Bihar Bankipur Assembly by-election. The party now appears to be rethinking its strategy.
It is against this backdrop that there appears to be a strong possibility of the Akali Dal and the BJP coming together again. The problem, however, lies with the BJP, which has so far insisted on going solo. The Akalis are quite keen on an alliance as their political survival could be at stake. With the BJP by its side, the Akali Dal could become part of a formidable force to reckon with, with a realistic chance of even winning the elections.
So far, both BJP and Akali leaders have remained tight-lipped about the outcome of the meeting between Modi and Sukhbir. While Akali leaders are openly favouring an alliance, Punjab BJP president Kewal Singh Dhillon said after the meeting that the party would contest the elections on its own.
Veteran BJP leader and former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh has repeatedly advocated an alliance, saying the BJP should consider one if it wants to form the government in Punjab. Something certainly seems to be in the offing.
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