is-india-prepared-for-demographic-challenge

For too long, India’s policy makers took comfort in the fact that the country’s large population of the youth gave it a distinct demographic advantage.

 

Time has now come to shrug off this sense of complacency.

 

The latest population report reveals that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) — the average number of children expected per woman — has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1.

 

The fertility rate below the replacement level means that women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration. India’s TFR was 2.3 in 2014 and 2.0 in 2021.

 

The state of world population report 2025 by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) brings out a unique paradox as far as India is concerned. Despite being the world’s most populous nation with 1.46 billion people, India is staring at a fertility crisis that threatens to rob it of its demographic advantage. This decline signals a long-term transition that will shape India’s population dynamics over the coming decades.

 

Demographic challenges ahead

 

The country may well be staring at a serious demographic challenge because of the steadily declining fertility rate. This means that the country will turn into an ageing society in the next three decades. For the first time, rural India’s TFR has touched the replacement rate of 2.1, while urban India’s rate is even lower at 1.5. Clearly, a quiet demographic transformation is underway.

 

Earlier, a report in the medical journal, Lancet, has projected that India’s TFR will fall to 1.29 in 2050. One in five persons in India will be above the age of 60 in 2050. This reflects a demographic shift with profound implications for the country’s health, fiscal and gender policies. In 2023, the UN Population Fund’s (UNPF) India Ageing Report projected that the number of elderly will more than double from 149 million in 2022 to 347 million by mid-century. This poses a challenge to the policy makers. With a lower number of births, the youth population will keep shrinking.

 

Focus on skill improvement

 

The demographic shift carries major economic implications in the form of high costs in geriatrics, old-age healthcare systems, and pension disbursements, diverting funds from development activities towards sustaining an old-age population. Most States remain ill-prepared for this proliferating fiscal burden. Migration is also reshaping population dynamics.

 

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Instead of waiting for the crisis to completely overpower us, there is a need to shift our strategies and public policies to focus on upskilling, empowering, and targeted investments in strengthening human capital.

 

At present, India’s labour productivity is low compared to global standards. This needs to be fixed in order to face the challenges of the future.

 

India must craft its health and welfare policies to reflect the demographic reality. Enhancing women’s participation in the workforce, expanding social support for childcare and elderly care and reforming workplace norms to reduce the economic burden of parenting must be among the focus areas.

 

Experts have suggested that the demographic strategy must pivot from population control to inclusive, rights-based population governance.

 

Multiple factors

 

The demographic transition, while not unique to India, signals a long-term shift in population trends driven by a complex mix of economic, social, and health-related factors.

 

Rising urbanisation, growing costs of raising children, women education and availability of contraceptives have altered the traditional family dynamics in India. Women’s increasing participation in the workforce are leading to delayed marriages, thereby reducing the reproductive window. Besides, fewer children and focus on higher education ensure upward mobility. While this decline is a sign of progress, especially in terms of healthcare and gender empowerment, it carries complex implications for economic growth.

 

Today’s working youth are prioritising career development, financial security, and personal freedom over starting families. Many are postponing marriage and parenthood to focus on their careers.

 

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In 1960, Indian women had an average of six children. Since then, India has achieved a dramatic reduction in fertility rates, largely through enhanced access to reproductive healthcare, greater educational outreach, and sustained efforts at women’s empowerment.

 

The UNFPA attributes this demographic shift not to coercive policies but to an organic transition supported by awareness campaigns and policy interventions.

 

With a lower number of births, the youth population will keep shrinking. As the size of the youth population falls, the number of older adults will surpass the young. India will need to reassess its social-security focus and make investments to provide the growing number of older adults with improved access to healthcare, income-security and social safety-nets.

 

The combination of declining fertility rates and longer life expectancies presents a complex situation, necessitating provisions for social security and healthcare for the increasing elderly population. There is also a need to generate employment opportunities that effectively utilise the skills of this demographic.

 

The global experience suggests that once fertility rates fall below the replacement level, it is almost impossible to set them back. India’s declining fertility rate is broadly in tune with the global trend. Experts have warned that the TFR could touch a worrying level of 1.04 by 2100.

 

Contrasting picture

 

What is worrying for India is that the demographic transition is coming even before the country could fix the basic problems of hunger, malnutrition, healthcare and housing and achieve minimum living standards for its people. In contrast, countries like Japan and Germany saw fertility decline after they achieved strong economic growth through better healthcare, education and living index.

 

While states with substantial declines in fertility rates and crude birth rates have achieved considerable progress in development indicators, their demographic transition is now pushing them towards population structures that resemble those of highly aged Western nations, albeit without the same levels of robust social security and elder care infrastructure.

 

India’s fertility decline is uneven across states and social groups. The TFRs in southern states range from 1.5 to 1.6, much below the replacement level. Tamil Nadu has a TFR of 1.4, while Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka are at 1.5 or 1.6.

 

Also read: Women continue to pay the deadly price of patriarchy

 

This is a cause of concern for leaders due to potential impacts on the workforce, an aging population, and reduced political representation, as parliamentary seats are allocated based on population size.

 

These concerns have apparently prompted N Chandrababu Naidu and MK Stalin, the Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively, to call upon the couples to have more children. AP government is already contemplating providing incentives to families with more children and a new law is being proposed to make only those with more than two children eligible to contest in the local body elections.