is-pakistan-planning-operation-gibraltar-ii-in-kashmir

The sudden spurt in violence in Jammu and Kashmir, which is continuing with terrorist attacks reported at regular intervals, has raised different sorts of concerns this time. At the start of the current spell of attacks, it was assumed that the Pakistan-backed terrorists had now focused on the Jammu region, instead of Kashmir, which they did not want to disturb. 

 

The NATO footprint

 

In due course of time, many details are unfolding which should be of more concern. First, it was the seizure of sophisticated US-made weapons that had been used by the NATO forces in Afghanistan against the Taliban. 

 

The NATO forces reportedly left behind a huge tranche of weapons and ammunition, part of which is feared to be finding its way into Jammu and Kashmir. There has been evidence to that count as many such weapons have been seized from the sites of the recent terror attacks.

 

Pakistan’s intrusions

 

As if that was not enough, there are reports of a significant number of Special Service Group (SSG) members of the Pakistan Army having infiltrated Jammu and Kashmir.

 

While some reports suggested that 600 have infiltrated into the union territory, others state that most of them are still waiting in the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, while only some have infiltrated to this side. 

 

While such reports were in the public domain for quite some time, a few days back a former Director General of Jammu and Kashmir Police Shesh Paul Vaid also revealed, quoting his own sources, that a significant number of SSG members of the Pakistan Army have infiltrated into Jammu and Kashmir. 

 

Vaid, after retiring from the Indian Police Service has been commenting and writing on security and strategic affairs. His “revelations” cannot be taken lightly. 

 

Security inputs about the SSG

 

There has been no comment from the security agencies about these revelations so far. Such reports and revelations obviously cannot be confirmed, but these can always be denied if there is a certainty that the SSF members have not infiltrated. While over a dozen attacks on the Indian Army have taken place, the security forces have not been able to arrest any of the terrorists alive. 

 

The expertise and precision with which the terrorists attacked the Indian army at different places suggest that the attackers are not routine or run-of-the-mill militants, with just a few weeks of training in merely handling guns and grenades. They appeared to be like professionally trained “soldiers”. 

 

This factor also lends credence to such reports as the level of training these terrorists are understood to have since none of them has been captured so far. They manage to make good their escape after attacking the army and causing casualties. They are believed to be highly motivated and trained particularly in guerrilla and mountain warfare.

 

The SSG is headed by Pakistan Army Major General, Adil Rahmani, who is its GOC (general officer commanding). Vaid disclosed that the SSG members have infiltrated under the command of Lt Col Shahid Saleem, who has already infiltrated into Jammu and Kashmir and is coordinating the attacks with the help of local sleeper cells.

 

Operation Gibraltar again?

 

If these reports are to be believed, it will be now for the second time that Pakistan, since 1947, has directly sent its troops into Kashmir, probably after realizing that it cannot depend much on the local insurrection. Although it tried to use its regular forces in 1947 and 1999 also, the current infiltration by the SSG resembles that of Operation Gibraltar, Pakistan launched in 1965.

 

It was named Operation Gibraltar, apparently to seek inspiration from the Muslim conquest of Spain and Portugal, which had been launched through the ‘Strait of Gibraltar’ in the early eighth century that saw Spain coming under Muslim rule, which lasted for centuries together. 

 

Under ‘Operation Gibraltar’, carried out under the direct orders of Pakistan’s military dictator Ayub Khan, the Pakistan Army infiltrated regular soldiers disguised as civilians into Jammu and Kashmir through Rajouri and Gulmarg areas. The Pakistan Army had established local links, which helped these ‘army regulars’ to move around, but they were eventually spotted, identified and exposed. The operation failed miserably.

 

Goal behind the operation

 

The strategy behind Operation Gibraltar was to raise insurrection in Kashmir and follow it with armed conflict on the border. Pakistan had assumed that after the Indo-China War just three years ago, the Indian Army was yet to recover. Besides, the Indian Army was short of ammunition, while Pakistan had amassed huge ammunition from the West.

 

The 1965 War between India and Pakistan lasted for about two months, with India emerging as a decisive winner, almost having captured Lahore and Sialkot in Punjab and completely having captured the Haji Pir Pass. 

 

Since the “Pakistan Army regulars” did not get any support from the local Kashmiri population then, the Pakistani military rulers were disappointed. At that moment, the Pakistani government formulated a new policy that while it will continue to support Kashmiris against India with training, resources arms and ammunition, it will not risk its people to go there and get killed after being reported by the Kashmiris. 

 

For that, Pakistan wanted the Kashmiris to rise in rebellion themselves.

 

Eventually, it was another military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq who managed successfully, through the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan to cause an uprising in Kashmir in 1989-90. Although Zia did not survive long to see it happening, the seeds he had sown, grew and matured within three years of his death in a mysterious air crash in August 1987.  

 

The local insurrection that started in 1989-90 survived for about three decades.

 

Pakistan Army/establishment appears to have redrawn its Kashmir strategy again and gone back to basics that if it has to raise an insurrection in Kashmir, it will need its regular forces there. Less number of Kashmiris are attracted and inclined to join militant ranks now as compared to 1989-90, when they would do it in droves.

 

Nothing compares to the Indian army

 

Militarily also, Pakistan realises that no matter how much it manages and succeeds in training and motivating local Kashmiri militants, it will never be in a position to challenge the might of the Indian Army. For that, it will need battle-hardened men and regular soldiers to challenge and combat an army like the Indian Army, which has proved itself to be among the best in the world. 

 

There is a huge number of “leftover jobless mercenaries” from Afghanistan in a “desperate search for survival”. They can go to any extent and to any corner in “search of work”. These “leftover mercenaries” may have come in handy for the Pakistan Army, which is relocating them to Jammu and Kashmir with minimum cost to itself. Besides, the regular SSF personnel, Pakistan Army may be using these mercenaries also.

 

There was already an apprehension among the Indian security establishment after the NATO forces left Afghanistan that the “leftover mercenaries” may be directed towards Kashmir. Those apprehensions seem to be turning true. Not only are the mercenaries threatening the peace in Kashmir, they are also coming along with highly sophisticated weapons that they have seized from the NATO forces or which they left behind.  

 

Pak will never give up, despite its existential crisis 

 

Pakistan will never give up its Kashmir policy of keeping it on the boil even if it faces an existential crisis itself, which it is facing right now. It seems to have launched yet another “war” on India in Kashmir, which eventually it will lose, as always. Even that does not deter its ‘all-powerful army establishment’ from resorting to repeated misadventures.

 

Pakistan is also faced with the new “Taliban challenge”. Its relationship with the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan has continuously deteriorated. Its influence in Afghanistan is waning.

 

Taliban in Pakistan

 

Added to that is the rise of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as Pakistan Taliban. The group is very active in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

 

The TTP has repeatedly targeted the Pakistan military establishment. The Pakistani government has been accusing the Indian intelligence agencies of supporting the TTP, an allegation rightly denied and dismissed repeatedly by the government of India. It is ironic that the same Taliban, which were groomed in Pakistan during the 1980s to fight the Russian forces, have now turned against the same country and its army.

 

With such a situation on the home front, besides the congenital Kashmir syndrome Pakistan is suffering from, it is not unexpected that it will keep on trying to keep the Indian army engaged and involved through proxy war, with minimum cost to itself, in one way or the other. In the process, it will also keep on devising new strategies to do that. 

 

But even General Ayub Khan had assumed the same proposition of minimum cost to his country when he had ordered ‘Operation Gibraltar’, while it actually ended up paying a heavy price, losing a full fledged war, almost losing Lahore and Sialkot in the process.