The political stalemate between Congress and NC continues in J&K over the seat-sharing agreement for the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls on four seats.
The fourth seat in particular has thrown open a gauntlet, with major opposition parties in J&K seeking favours from the ruling NC government against voting in favour.
The ideologically opposed People’s Democratic Party chief, Mehbooba Mufti, openly admitted supporting the party in the case of the National Conference returns the favour.
She said on Thursday that her party would consider supporting the National Conference in case the Omar-led government clears two key bills proposed by the PDP in the next assembly session.
Mufti said NC president Dr Farooq Abdullah had reached out to her and asked for support. “Farooq Sahib called me and asked for support. I told him that if they clear our bills, then we will think about supporting them.”
The million-dollar question, however, remains whether Omar and his government will clear the bills for support and open horse-trading speculations for others to join in.
If, in any case, NC accepts the demands, this will send a clear signal to others, who may otherwise extend support without favours.
The ethical limitations would have a serious role to play in the upcoming elections. NC, though, has some edge over the rival BJP, as the majority of the parties and independents in Jammu and Kashmir have rival competing interests with the BJP.
Should NC take favours in return for the favours?
Well, as stated above, accepting favours in return for political favours would send a bad message to the people of Kashmir from the NC government, which could deal a serious blow to the party’s future expectations and campaigns.
PDP and other major political parties must also understand that asking favours for favours would also hurt Kashmir’s overall politics.
The 2024 elections were historic and one-of-a-kind elections in J&K, where people voted in large numbers only to see better governance under the elected government.
There are chances that the Budgam bi-elections would not see the polling percentage numbers as they had in the last outing, owing to the negative attitude of the government towards the people of that particular constituency.
In the last assembly elections, JKNC emerged as the single largest party, winning 42 seats in total, while BJP came second with 29 seats won.
While its alliance partner, the Indian National Congress (INC), won 6 seats, the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (JKPDP) won 3 seats, while the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), the Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference, and the Aam Aadmi Party won one seat each.
Seven seats were won by independent candidates.
Supporting the BJP would equate to political suicide.
Whether NC accepts the support for favours or not, they will be relaxed over the fact that the BJP would hardly find any backers in the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls from the Kashmir-based parties.
There is no doubt that people of Kashmir hate the ruling dispensation at the centre for what they did on August 5, 2019.
Now, even if the BJP does find support, it would literally equate to a political suicide of the future for both independents and parties, as people in the Kashmir valley decisively voted against the BJP in 2024.
The ongoing hindsight consultations between the NC and independent MLAs in Kashmir will now have a decisive role to play in the upcoming elections.
It is expected that the independent votes will determine the result in the fourth and most contested seat in the Rajya Sabha polls in Jammu and Kashmir.
PDP’s 2014 coalition debacle with the BJP
An example of that was visible when the PDP lost both elections in 2024. They suffered crushing defeats in the Lok Sabha and in the Assembly elections held in 2024 after a decade-long wait.
Seeing the performance of the PDP in the last elections, political experts have observed that it will take the PDP almost two decades to recover and be reconsidered as a major political force in the UT.
BJP pulled out of the alliance in 2018 with PDP, which then paved the way for Governor Rule, followed by the extension of President’s Rule, which ultimately ended with the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.
So whatever scenario unfolds in the upcoming elections, NC has a clear advantage over the opposition BJP in most of the four seats.
Some political parties have denied supporting the National Conference over the failure of the government in delivering the major promises, including one of the pressing issues of rising unemployment.
By Waseem Ahmad Ganie
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