jk-delivers-polarised-bjp-centric-verdict-for-or-against

The union territory of Jammu and Kashmir has delivered a fragmented and polarised verdict in the recent assembly elections, with the two regions of Jammu and Kashmir getting completely polarised and voting for completely different, rather antagonising political parties/formations. 

In Kashmir valley, the people have voted with unanimity and a single-minded approach “to keep BJP out of power”.

 

Otherwise, nothing else explains the NC-INC’s impressively emphatic performance even in the areas and segments, which it could never imagine winning. In stark contrast, the BJP has almost swept the Jammu region, turning the elections completely BJP-centric; for or against.

 

It reminds us of the 1983 assembly elections in the state when the two regions were completely polarised between the National Conference and the Indian National Congress. At that time, the rivalry between the Congress and the National Conference was so fierce that it parallels today's rivalry between the National Conference and the Bharatiya Janata Party.

 

Interestingly, the Congress and the National Conference are two “trusted allies” now against the BJP, which, is “the only” glue for them to stick together. 

 

Before the current assembly elections, 1983 was supposedly the “last credible” election held in Jammu and Kashmir, although even then there were reports of electoral malpractices. But those were quite negligible. 

 

1983 elections were followed by the 1987 assembly elections when the National Conference led by Dr Farooq Abdullah aligned with the Congress led by the late Rajiv Gandhi. It was a forcible alliance as NC was an unwilling partner. Farooq compromised for multiple reasons, one of which was his inability to stay out of power for a long time. 

 

The 1987 elections were believed to have been extensively rigged, which eventually triggered the secessionist militancy backed by Islamic extremism duly supported by Pakistan. After that the assembly elections were held in 1996, which saw minimal participation. Although the subsequent elections in 2002, 2008 and 2014 saw better voter turnout, it was far less than the normal. 

 

Compared to those elections, the 2024 assembly elections are the most credible ones, which saw a reasonably good participation of people across the Kashmir valley. In the Jammu region, the participation has always been normal.

 

The current vote in Kashmir valley was completely “against” the BJP, the way it was “against” the Congress in 1983. Like the BJP now is considered as an outside party, the Congress then was treated the same way. Congress in 1983 won 26 seats and barring one, all of these were from the Jammu region.

 

In a reversal of fate and fortune, the Congress this time has won just 6 seats, and only one from the Jammu region, while five seats it won from the Kashmir valley and that too only because it had an alliance with the National Conference. 

 

Of the 49 seats, the NC-INC alliance has won 41 from the Kashmir region and only 8 from the Jammu region, mostly from the Muslim-dominated areas. The entire Hindu belt in the Jammu region has been swept by the BJP, which won 29 of the 43 seats falling in this region.

 

These elections were the first since the abrogation of Article 370 which accorded special status to Jammu and Kashmir. When Article 370 was abrogated, the state of Jammu and Kashmir was made into a union territory. 

 

There was considerable opposition to the abrogation of Article 370 in the Kashmir region, while it was by and large welcomed in the Jammu region. The electoral results reflected the same sentiment. 

 

The National Conference must be thankful to the BJP for abrogating Article 370 as otherwise, it would not have been possible for the party to win so many seats, which it won for the first time since 1996. 

 

Even those people who would never ever even imagine voting for the National Conference or the Congress, voted for the alliance partners this time, not because of any love for these parties, but only to keep the BJP away.

 

All parties, other than the National Conference and the Congress, fighting in the valley, as well as the independent candidates were deemed as the “BJP’s proxies”. There was an overwhelming apprehension among the people in Kashmir that the BJP would sweep the Jammu region and may only need 10-12 “independent” members from Kashmir to form the government. 

 

People did not want to take any chances. So much so, Engineer Rashid, who defeated Omar Abdullah in the parliamentary elections, leading from 15 of the 18 assembly segments then, could win just from one segment, Langate this time, where his brother was contesting. 

 

The NC-INC alliance had succeeded in building up a narrative that all those opposed to the alliance, including Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) were the BJP proxies. This was despite the fact that Engineer Rashid has been in jail since 2019 in a terror funding case. Currently, he is on interim bail for election purposes only.

 

This is a fact even acknowledged by Omar Abdullah during a television interview that the people of Kashmir, according to him, saw through the “BJP’s gameplan” of fielding independent candidates so that they would divide the votes and may help the BJP proxies win. People of Kashmir seemed to vote en masse for the NC-INC alliance candidates to keep the BJP out and they succeeded.

 

Even the Jamaat-e-Islami candidates, who were contesting as independents lost their security deposits from the traditional strongholds, like Sopore from where the National Conference candidate, Irshad Rasool Kar won.  

 

Engineer Rashid supported independent candidate Advocate Murasaleem, who was expected to get Jamaat-e-Islami votes, was a distant second, apparently for the reason that people did not want to take any chances and wanted to ensure the NC candidate's victory. 

 

Under normal circumstances, the National Conference could never imagine winning from Sopore, the hotbed of secessionist militancy and a stronghold of the Jamaat-e-Islami, from where its late leader Sayeed Ali Shah Geelani used to contest and mostly win. 

 

The vote in Kashmir is not a vote for the NC-INC alliance, but a vote to keep the BJP out of power, even if it meant Jamat-e-Islami supporters voting for the National Conference and Congress candidates, against their ones.