These elections will be quite different from those held during the last 34 years of trouble and turmoil in the valley
The final stage is being set for the legislative assembly elections in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. It will be after about ten years that assembly elections will be held in Jammu and Kashmir. The last assembly elections were held in November-December 2014. And it will be after about 37 years that there will be “normal” elections in Kashmir, without any boycott or bandh calls.
After the 2014 elections, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed a post-poll alliance, which lasted for four years till 2018, when the coalition collapsed and the state was brought under President’s Rule. It has been six years since then that Jammu and Kashmir, which was made a union territory on August 5, 2019, has remained under the President’s Rule.
So much has changed in Jammu and Kashmir since the last assembly elections held ten years ago. The state is no longer a state but has been downgraded to a union territory. Besides, a large part of the Ladakh region has been separated and carved into a separate union territory.
More than that Article 370 of the Indian Constitution has been abrogated and Jammu and Kashmir no longer enjoys a distinct and special status. After the abrogation of Article 370, the “effective” number of assembly segments has been raised to 90, while it is 114 with 24 seats designated for areas falling in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.
ECI begins JK visit
On Thursday, the full Election Commission led by Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar and accompanied by two Election Commissioners, Dr SS Sandhu and Gyanesh Kumar started its three-day visit to the Union Territory. The team held meetings with representatives of different political parties including the National Conference, the Congress, the People’s Democratic Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Panthers Party and some other local parties. Representatives of all the political parties insisted upon holding the elections in the UT before September 30, 2024, the deadline set by the Supreme Court of India.
On December 11, last year, the Supreme Court of India, while deciding a petition challenging the abrogation of Article 370 upheld the government of India's decision to abrogate Article 370. At the same time, it had directed the government to restore statehood to Jammu and Kashmir. Besides, the Supreme Court set a deadline of September 30, 2024, for holding the assembly elections.
While the Supreme Court had also directed the Centre to restore the statehood, it had not set any deadline for the same. In all likelihood, the elections will be held while JK remains a Union Territory only. The new assembly and the government will have limited powers and not full-fledged powers.
Recently the Ministry of Home Affairs, the government of India enhanced the powers of the Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, in matters related to the police, public order, all Indian services and transfers and postings.
This will be something akin to the ‘Delhi model’ where the LG has the final authority in similar matters. ‘Delhi model’ was upheld by the Supreme Court of India, after it had been challenged by the ruling Aam Aadmi Party government there.
Understandably, different political parties in Jammu and Kashmir, except the BJP had opposed the union Home Ministry’s move saying the elected government in the state will remain handicapped with limited and restricted powers.
Hope for statehood
However, in sharp contrast to Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir can hope for restoration of statehood as directed by the Supreme Court of India. Once the statehood is restored, the state will remain at a par with other states across the country with the state government enjoying full powers according to the constitution. Under that arrangement, the Governor’s role will mostly remain ceremonial only.
While the assembly elections will be held after ten years it will be after about 37 years that Jammu and Kashmir will have “normal” elections, without the shadow of guns, threats or violence. As was evident in the recently concluded 2024 General Elections, which were completely peaceful, free from boycotts and bandh calls and without any violence with a maximum of 60 per cent polling.
This time, even the Jamaat-e-Islami, a radical political party, that so far has propagated separatist cause seeking Kashmir’s separation from India and accession to Pakistan, and has continuously boycotted the elections after 1987, has offered to participate in the elections if the centre lifts the ban from it. The party remains currently banned for unlawful and anti-national activities.
The willingness of the Jamat-e-Islami to participate in the elections and the massive participation of common people in elections are strong indicators that people have reconciled to the reality that Jammu and Kashmir’s present and future is bound with India only and it remains an integral and an inalienable part of the Indian nation. Any solution to any problem can only be found within the constitutional mandate.
That is the reason people are coming forward to participate in the elections.
The cross-border threat
At the same time, the threat of violence sponsored by Pakistan will continue to loom large over the elections. Recent incidents of terror attacks in parts of Jammu and Kashmir regions are a stark reminder that the threat of violence is very much there.
There is a strong likelihood of Pakistan having deliberately planned and calibrated the terror attacks around the time of the elections. Peaceful elections with mass participation defeat the plank and purpose of Pakistan. The successful conduct of elections and installation of a popular government will defeat Pakistan’s argument that Kashmiris do not enjoy any freedom. Its concerns must have grown further after the mass participation of people in the 2024 General Elections.
It is not that the elections in Jammu and Kashmir will be held for the first time in the last three decades of turmoil there, but the level of participation and involvement of people expected in these elections is indicative of a great change in the overall mood and atmosphere there. For this, the current dispensation at the centre deserves the credit.
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