While the party is still trying to overcome the shock of a crushing defeat in Bihar, where it has been wiped out almost completely, the Congress is faced with yet another challenge. This time from Karnataka, where Deputy Chief Minister Shivakumar is up in arms demanding to be elevated as the Chief Minister, as his supporters claim was promised at the time of government formation in 2023.
He has been quiet on his own but is speaking out through his supporters. They claim that Shivakumar had been promised in 2023 that he would be made Chief Minister after two and a half years. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has refused to entertain any idea of quitting and making way for his deputy. While dismissing suggestions that there was a rotational arrangement of making him and Shivakumar Chief Minister for two and a half years each, he has been asserting aggressively that he will complete the full five-year term.
As usual, the Congress is biding time. Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi has reportedly been continuously avoiding meeting Shivakumar. This also proves who is in actual control of things in the Congress and that the party president Mallikarjun Kharge is merely a rubber stamp. Otherwise, it should be Kharge who takes command and makes the final decision. Besides, he happens to come from Karnataka himself.
The breakfast meeting between the two “warring leaders” at the behest of the high command is more like a ceasefire than an actual ending of hostilities.
Factionalism has been a perennial problem with the Congress. Barely does the party manage to win a state before factional fights begin for the Chief Ministership. A substantial number of problems the Congress faces today are because of the lack of strong and assertive leadership that can enforce strict discipline. Like in the BJP, where veterans like Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Vasundhara Raje Scindia were benched and fresh faces were inducted as Chief Ministers, there was not even a murmur.
The Congress, under current circumstances, can never imagine doing anything like that. It had tried this in Rajasthan, where it wanted to replace the old warhorse Ashok Ghelot with Sachin Pilot. But Ghelot proved too smart to be outfoxed. The party faced a rout in Punjab only because of not being able to curb factionalism and indiscipline. Had the Congress not succumbed to the rebels’ pressure—Navjot Singh Sidhu in particular—and replaced Amarinder Singh as the Chief Minister ahead of the 2022 elections, the party would not have been routed in Punjab. The party is now desperately trying for revival against multiple challenges.
Also read: Karnataka leadership row: Deputy CM meets CM over breakfast
The Karnataka situation is very difficult for the Congress. It has to find a middle path between two aggressive and warring leaders, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on one side and Shivakumar on the other. It cannot afford to antagonise either of them. While Bihar is infamous for “caste politics”, it plays less of a role in Karnataka, an economically more prosperous and progressive state.
The Congress’ compulsion is the caste dynamics also. While Shivakumar belongs to the dominant Vokkaliga caste, to which he cherishes his affiliation, Siddaramaiah belongs to the Kuruba Gowda caste, which is counted among the backward classes. He mainly banks upon the support of minorities, Dalits and backward classes. The Congress cannot afford to antagonise or alienate him as he represents what the party, particularly Rahul, has been preaching: “participation in power for Dalits, OBCs and minorities”.
With such dynamics at play, the Congress most likely will stick to the status quo and may not change the state leadership. But the problem will not be solved. Shivakumar’s supporters are growing restless and aggressive. He also enjoys the support of a considerable number of party MLAs in the state legislature. Although his options are limited, as he may not jump ship to join the BJP given the cases registered against him, for which he also went to jail, in politics nothing is permanent and everything is unpredictable.
The Congress will need to handle the situation in a delicate manner. Karnataka offered a lot of hope to the Congress. It cannot afford to cede it to the BJP, which is waiting in the wings to exploit the factionalism that is threatening to turn into a civil war in the state. If, by any chance, the Congress loses Karnataka as well, it cannot even offer the excuse of the “government being stolen” by the BJP.
The Congress will have to set its house in order, impose strict discipline, while also being sensitive towards the aspirations and ambitions of its leaders. The party simply cannot afford to lose someone like D.K. Shivakumar, lest he ends up like another Himanta Biswa Sarma.
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