After over six years, three mainstream political parties in the Kashmir Valley have regrouped again, this time against the Bharatiya Janata Party. Their aim is to ensure that the BJP does not win any Rajya Sabha seat from Jammu and Kashmir.
There are four Rajya Sabha vacancies in J&K for which votes were cast on October 24. While the ruling National Conference (NC) is assured of winning three, the BJP is striving to secure the fourth.
In the 90-member assembly, two seats are vacant, with by-elections scheduled for November 11. Nagrota became vacant following the death of sitting BJP MLA Devinder Singh Rana, while Budgam was vacated after Omar Abdullah decided to retain the Ganderbal assembly segment and resign from Budgam.
The assembly composition is as follows: NC 41, BJP 28, Congress 6, PDP 3, AAP 1, CPM 1, and seven independents. The NC, PDP, and Congress — the latter now identifying more with Kashmir than the entire union territory, have taken a stand to deny the BJP a Rajya Sabha seat.
This is despite the NC and PDP being fierce rivals. The Congress is also unhappy with the NC for refusing to offer one of the three “safe seats” to it. Yet, both parties have swallowed the bitter pill of supporting the NC just to ensure the BJP’s defeat, a consistent theme among the party’s opponents.
Regardless of the final result, Kashmir-based parties have again shown they can go to great lengths to isolate the BJP. They had done the same in 2019 after the abrogation of Article 370, forming an alliance to fight for its restoration and the statehood of J&K. That alliance, however, eventually dissolved.
The three parties were part of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc. However, the PDP was excluded in both the general and assembly elections, while the Congress and NC contested together; the PDP, running independently, was reduced to just three seats in the 90-member house.
The Congress and PDP have different reasons for supporting NC candidates. Congress can never support the BJP and chose to vote for NC candidates despite being snubbed. The PDP’s numbers are inconsequential but allow it to maintain a moral stance against the party that abrogated Article 370, despite past humiliations in elections.
This one-sided voting could further polarise the Hindu-majority Jammu and Muslim-majority Kashmir regions, already distinct culturally, linguistically, religiously, and politically. It risks alienating Jammu residents, who have felt sidelined since J&K became a union territory. While Chief Minister Omar Abdullah appointed a Deputy Chief Minister and a minister from Jammu, these gestures are seen as symbolic.
At the national level, securing at least three Rajya Sabha seats from J&K would be significant for the INDIA bloc, as numbers are crucial for passing laws and legislation. Despite contradictions within the bloc, the results from J&K are likely to be satisfactory.
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