making-sense-of-red-fort-blast-and-thereafter

By Brig RPS Kahlon, VSM (Retd)

 

Indo-Pak animosity can be traced back to bifurcation of the erstwhile British Colony on basis of religion. In subsequent 1947-48 campaign for control of J&K, Pakistan failed, in spite of having reached the outskirts of Srinagar, isolated Ladakh and annexed Gilgit Regency, in October of 1947 itself. This loss still rankles them as ‘unfinished business’. Apropos from 1987 onwards, Pakistan adopted a strategy of fermenting a ‘low intensity conflict’ (LIC), by propping up terrorists/ separatists in the Kashmir Valley. There has been a ‘cat and mouse’ game between the intelligence and security establishments of the two nations since. Skirmishes maybe won or lost, while the war for ‘unfinished business of Kashmir’ continues with status quo ante.

  

The present day ‘multi domain operations’ (MDO), fuelled by an unbridled social media in cognitive domain, and additional tools of cyber, space and heightened transparency, readily available to state sponsored terrorists, makes this engagement more intense and lethal. The recent 10/11 Red Fort blast is symptomatic of this. The Indian response has to be accordingly nuanced and sensitive to the existing environment. 

  

Discerning facts from conjectures

 

It is a fact that the PM Narendra Modi in response to Pahalgam terror attack stated that "India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth." This resolve was restated again by the PM from Thimphu, on November 11, post the Red Fort blast.

 

It is a fact that Operation Sindoor has not been terminated. It is a reasonable conjecture that the ongoing Operation Sindoor, as part of the whole nation approach, has in the intervening months successfully targeted terrorist cells and their over ground workers (OGW). The major haul of explosives in Faridabad on the day of the Red Fort blast itself, bears testimony to it.

 

It is a fact that in punitive strikes at Muridke, close family members of the JeM supremo were collateral damage. This was a loss of face for JeM and its handlers. It is a reasonable conjecture that retaliation by JeM to regain relevance was a matter of time.

 

The Red Fort blast is a fact. It is a conjecture, which is gaining traction, that the incident was triggered by the remnants of the terrorist cell neutralised, as revealed on that day itself. It is reasonable to assume based on the recoveries and arrests that a bigger plan of serial blasts in the NCR has been averted. The Indian intelligence and security establishment are on track, and a minor setback should not take Indian attention away from the larger stated aim, the operative words being ‘neutralising terrorists and their backers’.

 

It is also reasonable to assume that Pakistan is reverting to its earlier playbook of activating India-based terrorist cells, as was the case with the Indian Mujahideen, for bomb blasts in Indian metro cities from 2005 till 2014. This gives Pakistan the requisite deniability. It erodes Indian justification for a punitive strike on terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan.

 

Also read: Providential escape for Delhi from terror attack

 

It is Pakistan’s endeavour to nudge the ongoing LIC more into the realm of ‘grey-zone warfare’ where it feels it can achieve parity rather than a conventional face off, limited or otherwise, where Pakistan is at a distinct disadvantage. India needs to keep its powder dry, while sharpening its capabilities for grey-zone engagements. 

 

It is a conjecture that the Operation Sindoor punitive strikes had a deterrent effect as hitherto fore. The Indian playbook of retaliatory punitive strikes since 2016 is becoming predictably repetitive. The principle of diminishing returns applies as the adversary takes countermeasures. It is reasonable to assume that this playbook needs to be tweaked for desired effect. 

 

Compulsions, options and possible response

 

It is imperative that the Indian establishment takes a holistic view of the national security situation, because cross-border terrorism and Pakistan is not the only security challenge it faces.

 

China is a competitor when it jousts for strategic and economic space with India in the Asia Pacific region, and is a wily adversary in the Indo-Tibetan border face-off. China is also India’s largest trading partner, with the balance of trade in its favour. In the face of Chinese challenge, the Pakistan antics could well be just a distraction best avoided. China would love it to be otherwise.

 

Global Bully and Hegemon, US, has plied India with inordinately high tariffs and trade restriction, purportedly to coerce her into toeing the American dictate, though it could well be to impede her economic rise. Pakistan, post Operation Sindoor has moved to the right side of US. The US would like nothing better than to fish in troubled water in any future Indo-Pak face-off. India could do well to delay that, at least till US President Donald Trump drives the US disruptive agenda.

  

Internally, the Indian polity needs to ensure that the Indian economy stays firm on its path of economic growth. In the overall calculus a conflict with Pakistan, limited or otherwise, only drains resources vital for nation building.

  

India needs to respond to the Red Fort blast, resolutely, but as a realist. The ongoing elimination of terrorist’s networks is already a muscular response. The planned serial blasts in the NCR, were stymied to a single reactive suicide attack.

  

Pakistan can be dealt with at a time of own choosing, when the retaliation is not only punitive but also depilating. The Indian playbook, meanwhile, could explore options in the ongoing grey-zone warfare, considering opportunities offered in local Pakistan insurgencies of Baluch, Pashtun and Kashmiri separatists. Conditions need to be created where this threat becomes a tool for coercion, in due course of time. 

  

The Indian security establishment has so far been measured and nuanced in its response. The MHA swung into immediate containment and investigation mode. The public has been kept informed without compromising the security. The PM proceeded on his state visit to Thimphu as scheduled, clearly signalling that the security situation is well under control. The news cycle has been oriented to a bigger tragedy averted rather than pointing fingers at a foreign hand, neatly side-stepping the ‘commitment trap’ of punitive retaliation against Pakistan. This is certainly a new playbook, with the Indian security set up dictating the narrative. We should be content to repose our faith and be secure in the process, because payback much like karma is inevitable, it is just a matter of time.