Manchester attack: A tragedy the Jewish community saw coming
It is difficult to say whether or not antisemitism is rising in the UK. But data shows that while strong antisemitism remains relatively uncommon in the UK, the odds of Jewish people encountering neighbours with at least one antisemitic idea remains worryingly high.
News Arena Network - London - UPDATED: October 5, 2025, 01:59 PM - 2 min read
Police stand guard at the scene of the attack.
A man believed to be Jihad Al-Shamie, a 35-year-old British citizen born in Syria, has been shot dead by police after launching an attack on a synagogue in Manchester on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar. Melvin Cravitz, 66, and Adrian Daulby, 55, died in the attack – one having been accidentally shot by police trying to stop the suspect.
According to media, a member of the public called the police at 9:31 am to report the incident. Greater Manchester Police deployed firearms officers to the scene at 9:34 am. At 9:38 am, officers declared “Operation Plato” – a code word used by UK emergency services for a marauding terrorist attacker. At 9:39 am, armed counter terrorism police officers, shot and killed Al-Shamie who died at the scene. Counter terrorism police later confirmed the attacked as a “terrorist incident”.
Within hours, it had become clear that many foresaw such an attack. The media reported comments from Marc Levy, chief executive of the Jewish Representative Council, a body representing Jewish communities in Greater Manchester. Levy described the events as “an inevitability”.
The Board of Deputies of British Jews, a national body representing Jewish communities across the UK, described the attack as “sadly something we feared was coming”.
A Jewish interest newspaper reported that staff at the London Centre for the Study of Contemporary Antisemitism were “shocked but not surprised”.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria visit the scene of the attack.
Recent research by the thinktank Antisemitism Policy Trust analysed demonstrations against the war in Gaza. It found public expressions of anti-Jewish hatred alongside more legitimate pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli government sentiment, including Arabic chants referencing the massacre of Jews in 628 BC.
The Community Security Trust, an organisation serving and protecting Jewish communities, records and reports antisemitic incidents in the UK. In 2023, the CST recorded 4,296 incidents – the largest number in a single year. CST used previous lower annual totals to explain how antisemitism is now fuelled by responses to the October 7 Hamas attacks: 1,684 incidents in 2020, 2,261 in 2021 and 1,662 in 2022.
The CST works carefully to investigate and verify all reports of antisemitism. While their work is entirely robust, it cannot easily reveal whether the dramatic rise in incidents reflects growing antisemitic sentiment, or increases in the reporting of antisemitic incidents to the CST, or both.
According to Home Office figures, religious hate crime against Jewish people more than doubled between the years ending March 2023 to March 2024. In 2022-23, there were 1,543 incidents recorded by the police. In 2023-24, there were 3,282.
While the number of incidents is lower than those against Muslim people – 3,432 in 2022-23 and 3,866 in 2023-24 – Jewish people are more likely to suffer religious hate crime. There were 121 incidents for every 10,000 Jewish in England and Wales compared to 10 incidents for every 10,000 Muslim people.
The same caveats apply here. We cannot know whether these increases represent growing hostility towards Jewish people in the UK or more Jewish people reporting hostility to the police. This issue is further complicated by the fact that police-recorded crime is no longer regarded as meeting the standard required of reliable national statistics due to poorly managed recording practices.
How widespread is antisemitism in the UK?
In 2017, the Institute for Jewish Policy Research (JPR) published what is arguably the most robust mapping of antisemitism in the UK. It estimated the extent of anti-Jewish attitudes using a nationally representative survey.
The JPR found that around 2 per cent of the UK population might be labelled as “hardcore” antisemites and a further 3 per cent as “softer” antisemites on the basis that both groups hold multiple antisemitic ideas. It also found that at least one more antisemitic idea is held by 30 per cent of British society.
It is difficult to say with clarity whether or not antisemitism is rising in the UK, mainly because police statistics are so unreliable. But when terrorist attacks occur, we seek to understand what has happened and reach for robust information. This creates an urgent need for fresh research with better police data and more recent crime data.
Regardless of all this, findings from the JPR show that while strong antisemitism remains relatively uncommon in the UK, the odds of Jewish people encountering neighbours with at least one antisemitic idea remains worryingly high. Small wonder then that so many felt this attack was just a matter of time.
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