mission-bjp-unlock-india-s-south-gate-but-will-tamil-nadu-hold-the-key

BJP’s recently enhanced optics in the Tamil Nadu electoral space is likely to significantly change the polling dynamics of the Southern state.

 

The year 2019 was not kind to the Party and its allies, and the newly formed INDIA bloc presents a fresh challenge.  Not surprising, therefore, that the apex leadership of BJP has made no bones about the Party’s mission-mode approach to the upcoming contest. 

 

They have a lot to be pragmatic about –  any new seat garnered would be a welcome addition and a loss to the present bi-polar dispensation of the AIADMK and DMK (under the banner of INDIA).  And a windfall gain, spurred by possible anti-incumbency accruing to the Dravidian parties, would be proclaimed as nothing short of a major tectonic upheaval.  But that’s a long shot.

 

BJP is not the party to take aim and not hit bullseye.  It is structured, motivated and financed strongly enough to quickly plan strategies, make alliances and raise profiles of key contestants. 

 

The newly wrought change in electoral dynamics, star appearances and new candidates challenging the established ones, has pitched the upcoming polls to the stratosphere. 

 

 No matter how this foray of the ‘Northerners’ into Southern bastions finally works out in terms of cold, hard numbers, it is clear that the contest would be anything but ho-hum.

 

Tamil Nadu has a total of 39 seats in the Lok Sabha of which seven are reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates.  Polling on all the seats will happen today, April 19.

 

In the previous Lok Sabha elections in 2019, MK Stalin’s DMK led the Secular Progressive Alliance comprising six parties including INC, CPI, CPI (M), VCK and IUML to win 38 seats.  AIADMK, led by O Panneerselvam and Edappadi K Palaniswami, was the main challenger leading the National Democratic Alliance including BJP, DMDK, PMK and PT to win a grand total of one seat. 

 

This time around, under the leadership of K Annamalai, BJP hopes to raise the bar to double figures by contesting in 23 seats and has formed necessary alliances in an effort to widen the footprint of NDA. 

 

Tamil Nadu is one of the key states in BJPs campaign to secure 370 seats.  Having failed to win any seat in 2019, the Party has had to re-engineer its approach in order to make significant inroads and to capture the narrative.  In doing so, it has to consider a number of things, including a strong ‘Northern’ image, its saffron hue, and its far right leanings, which add to its ‘Southern discomfort’ while entering the fray. 

 

Raising the Katchatheevu bogey appeared, at best, as a feeble attempt to point out historical wrongs.  But it seemed to be washed away with a simple counter-question, “so what did you do about it?” 

 

Corruption and dynasty are trusted weapons, but in all fairness, they are not new.  So the BJP seeks to make this one a fight about personalities by spot-lighting K Annamalai, the feisty ex-cop rising star in the electoral landscape in the state who is publicly endorsed by no less a personage than Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself.

 

 Contesting from Coimbatore, K Annamalai seems to have his task cut out.  As state unit chief of BJP, he will have to fight not only to win but also to uphold the reputation of a party that is presently incumbent in the Centre. He faces former city mayor Ganapathy P Rajkumar of DMK and SG Ramachandran of AIADMK in a contest which BJP last won way back in 1999.

 

 National parties tend not to fare very well in the State.  The Congress has fielded candidates in nine seats only, and therefore the bid of 22 seats by BJP seems to be a tough call. 

 

In order to survive in this scenario, these parties have to dig deep into the southern roots and espouse causes that are relevant to the voters in diverse constituencies. 

 

How BJP or Congress or any other National party performs here would be determined by how close they have their ear to the ground.

 

Till the results arrive on June 4, seats such as Coimbatore will be watched with considerable interest. 

 

A stellar performance by any of the ‘National’ entities this time around would indicate the progress of the Tamil Nadu electorate from state-bound politics to a broader, pan-India engagement.