Recently radical Sikh leader and president of the Shiromani Akali Dal-Amritsar Simranjit Singh Mann, a diehard and unapologetic proponent of Khalistan, while calling for the unity among the Akali ranks, suggested that Sukhbir Badal was acceptable to all.
Although he supplemented his opinion with his characteristic witty sarcasm saying, Sukhbir had started looking like a typical Akali with potbelly and flowing beard, his remarks hold a lot of significance in terms of Akali politics. Mann has always openly espoused the Khalistan cause, although he has repeatedly taken oath as an MP under the Indian Constitution, and has been a bitter and vocal critic of the Badal family.
Shiromani Akali Dal is not like any other family driven regional party. It was founded with a mission and agenda to protect and safeguard the ‘panthic’ interests. By and large it has lived up to its purpose and reputation. In the meanwhile, there have been multiple Aklai factions, which have emerged in the state from time to time. But the Shiromani Akali Dal, currently headed by Sukhbir Singh Badal, has remained the mainstream and dominant Akali force and has always stuck to the moderate ideology even against all challenging odds like extremism and militancy during the 1980s.
However, during the last decade or so, the party has seen progressive decline. So much so, its assembly tally was reduced to mere three in the 2022 assembly elections with stalwarts like Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Badal also losing from their respective assembly segments.
Akalis used to bank upon the anti-Congress sentiment in the countryside, particularly among the rural peasantry. Even when this segment was annoyed with the party, they would eventually vote for it in absence of a third force. Once the AAP entered the scene in 2014, this section of voters found an alternative to both the Congress and Akalis. The AAP capitalised on it, first in 2017 and finally in 2024 that saw it winning 3/4th majority in the assembly.
Punjabis, by nature, are anti-establishment. They do not take much time to get disillusioned with the incumbent governments. This has precisely happened with the AAP also. The party is facing strong anti-incumbency. The success in the by-elections is no reflection of the AAP perception among the masses. In the 2024 General Elections, the AAP fared badly winning only 3 of the 13 parliamentary seats in Punjab. The party led from only 34 assembly segments in these elections, a decline of about 60 per cent from its 2024 performance.
Unlike 2022, the AAP is no longer in a position to marginalise or corner the mainstream Akalis led by Sukhbir Badal. Its indication was available in the Tarn Taran by-election, where the Akali Dal polled about 30,000 votes. Although it lost to the AAP, the margin of defeat was about 12,000 votes only. Besides, the Akali vote was divided between its candidate and a radical one, supported by the breakaway faction of the party. The two Akali candidates got about 7,000 more votes than the AAP candidate.
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The Akali candidate got about 29,000 votes, the radical candidate supported by the breakaway Akali faction could manage 19,000 votes. In the parliamentary elections held last year, radical candidate Amritpal who won from Khadoor Saheb constituency by a margin of about two lakh votes, had polled over 42,000 votes from Tarn Taran assembly segment.
While the AAP won the seat, Sukhbir Badal re-established his firm grip on the party with people recognising his party and his leadership against the breakaway faction that is led by former Akal Takhat Jathedar Giani Harpreet Singh. That is what seems to have prompted Simranjit Singh Mann to suggest that Sukhbir Badal was acceptable to all Aklai factions.
Akali Dal under Sukhbir’s leadership has been seeing a gradual comeback for some time. He has been reaching out to the party workers across the state and getting good response as well. Tarn Taran assembly election outcome is in continuation of his comeback and recognition as the leader of the representative Akali Dal.
Sukhbir has proven credentials having worked for a long time under the guidance of his late father and five-time chief minister of Punjab Parkash Singh Badal.
Tarn Taran ‘verdict’ in terms of Akali politics is also important because people in that predominantly panthic constituency have shown unambiguous, clear and categorical preference for the moderate leadership over the radical one.
There is a marked difference between the ‘panthic’ and the ‘radical’. In Tarn Taran it has been panthic that has dominated over the radical. The mainstream/ moderate Akali Dal will definitely be able to capitalise on the Tarn Taran outcome across Punjab.
Although it is too early to predict any future alignments in Punjab politics as the elections are still 15 months away, yet indications are that the 2027 assembly elections will be multi-cornered and not just a direct fight between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party and the principal opposition party Congress. As the Akali Dal is reemerging as a force to reckon with and the BJP being quite strong in the urban/H indu dominated areas, it might well end up as a four-cornered contest in case there is no alliance between any of the parties ahead of the elections.
The silver lining in Tarn Taran has been the moderate Akalis reoccupying the space that had been grabbed by radicals just over a year ago. The party is certain to move ahead from here and redeem the space that it had conceded not only to the radicals, but to other opposition parties like the AAP and Congress. In fact, the radicals’ rise corresponded with the decline of the moderates. Once they are back in the game, the radicals’ space will shrink further.
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