Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Dera Ballan in Jalandhar on Sunday has created a lot of political buzz in the state ahead of the Assembly elections which are still a year away. It has been a complete turnaround for the Bharatiya Janata Party during the last four years. From being a political pariah ahead of the 2022 Assembly elections to being seriously considered as an option within this time span is indeed a major achievement.
Unlike in the run up to the 2022 elections when the BJP leaders and candidates were barred from visiting the villages, the party is now being seriously talked about and considered as a possible option. The Prime Minister’s visit is being followed up by a mega political rally in Moga, possibly on February 22, which will be addressed by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. The party is aiming to bring a crowd of about one lakh people, mostly farmers to the rally. Moga is the centre of the all-important Malwa region, which sends about 69 of the 117 legislators to the Punjab Assembly.
This appears to be a well-calculated campaign that the BJP has started in Punjab much ahead of others. The BJP is known to be a party “always in election mode”. Its critics have been accusing it of “only knowing how to contest the elections”. But that is what the political parties are supposed to do; eventually contest and win the elections.
Amit Shah in particular, although he is no longer holding any organisational position, is known as a great strategist who looks and works ahead of others. So there is nothing surprising in his February 22 visit to Punjab to address the farmers’ rally, which will further accelerate party’s political and electoral momentum in Punjab.
It is so characteristic of the BJP to plan its strategy in a systematic way and well in advance far ahead of others. First the Prime Minister reached out to Dalit sect, which is most prominent and influential in the Doaba region. Although the Dera does not hold the monolithic influence across the entire Dalit population, it is well respected and a trend setter in the Dalit politics.
Its following is mostly restricted to the Ravi Das sect among the Dalit community. The BJP has conveyed a message to the community. So far the BJP did not have much presence among the Dalit electorate in Punjab. Its base was restricted mainly within the urban middle class Hindus. It has made an opening into the Dalit constituency with the Prime Minister’s visit, which is not only being noticed but positively acknowledged as well.
Farmers, so far, had maintained a distance from the BJP and were rather hostile towards the party following the introduction of three agriculture laws. Although the laws were withdrawn, the hostility persisted across the countryside that is dominated by the Jatt peasantry. That hostility towards the BJP no more exists. Rather there is a feeling across Punjab that the BJP could be a better option since it is in power at the centre also. There is a feeling that a friendly government at the centre can bail Punjab out of its multiple problems.
Also read: Punjab: PM Modi pays tributes to Guru Ravidas
The growing debt, agrarian crisis, drug addiction and rising gangster-culture are some of the basic issues that will need to be addressed. Since the BJP has not been tried so far in Punjab, as till now it shared power as a junior and inconsequential partner of the Shiromani Akali Dal, it can seek a chance from the people of Punjab who are not averse to experimenting. The Aam Aadmi Party also stormed to power by appealing to people to give it a chance. The BJP is yet to exercise that option of seeking a chance.
Modi does command an appeal and respect among the Sikh community given his frequent visits to Sikh holy places and various positive gestures towards the community. His work is being noticed within the community. If the BJP has managed to neutralise the earlier hostility, it is because of Modi’s personal approach towards the community.
A year is a long time in politics. But the BJP has already started off well. Although Modi did not talk any politics at Dera Balan, its message was not lost on anyone. His visit took every other political party in the state, particularly the ruling AAP, by surprise. Modi’s visit was preceded by the Government of India awarding Padam Shri to Dera Ballan Chief Sant Niranjan Dass.
The BJP, so far, has repeatedly maintained that it will be fighting the next Assembly elections in Punjab on its own without any alliance. The party has been conveying specific signals about it. However, that may prove to be a long shot as the party has to go a long way to accomplish that feat. In all likelihood, the party may go for an alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal. But that may be done at a later stage, after the BJP establishes itself as a strong force. So far it had been contesting only 23 of the 117 Assembly segments in alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal. That arrangement will definitely change in case there is an alliance.
It is not only the AAP and the Congress who are feeling concerned about the BJP’s public outreach, even the Akali Dal is apprehensive about the saffron party’s expansionist approach. Because, the more space the BJP occupies, the more it will shrink for the Akalis as they will have to concede more seats for an alliance. And Akalis know that their survival is directly dependent on an alliance with the BJP and vice versa. But the BJP can afford to go alone even if it means not winning, something the Akalis can ill afford.
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