Prime Minister Narendra Modi is planning to visit Dera Ballan in Jalandhar on February 1 to attend Guru Ravidas Jayanti celebrations. He was invited to attend the celebrations at Kashi Janam Sthan Mandir of Guru Ravidas in Uttar Pradesh also. It is the religious headquarter of the Guru Ravidas sect.
Dera head Niranjan Dass extended the invitation personally to the Prime Minister. Dass was also conferred with the Padam Shri this year.
Dera Ballan holds a lot of influence among the Dalit community particularly in the Doaba region of Punjab. The import of the message of the Prime Minister attending the birth anniversary celebrations, also called the Parkash Purb of Guru Ravidas, will not be lost on anyone. More so, when the visit has been scheduled just about a year before the crucial Assembly elections in Punjab, which are likely to be held around February next year.
While the visit of the Prime Minister is undoubtedly an expression of faith and respect towards Guru Ravidas, it will carry forward a message that will go beyond the faith and belief of Modi. It will mark the beginning of the BJP’s Dalit outreach in Punjab.
Punjab has about 34 per cent Dalit population. Till now, the BJP had mostly remained restricted to the urban middle classes among the Hindus. It had not reached out to the Dalits with a serious pursuit. The party does have some popular Dalit leaders like Chaudhary Som Prakash and Vijay Sampla, just to name a few. But it had not made any large scale inroads into the Dalit constituency.
Punjab is the only state in the north, where the party has not been able to establish itself as a strong force to reckon with.
The BJP appears to be keen on expanding its base and emerging as an independent force in Punjab. Till 2022, the party in its modern avatar had only played second fiddle to the Akalis. It was for the first time that the party contested the elections in the state on its own without any alliance. This was after the Shiromani Akali Dal parted ways with the BJP in 2020 in view of the farmers’ agitation against three Central agricultural laws.
The breaking up of the alliance proved mutually suicidal for both. While the SAD won three seats that too in alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party, the BJP won just two seats in the 2022 Assembly elections. In the Parliamentary elections held in 2024, although the two parties almost reached close to an alliance, last minute differences did not let it go through. Both the parties were almost wiped out. The Akalis won the Bathinda Parliamentary constituency and the BJP failed to open the account.
Also read: Congress caught in caste crosshairs in Punjab
However, the BJP’s performance in terms of vote share was impressive and much better than the Akalis. While the BJP got about 18 per cent vote share, it led from 23 Assembly segments. The Akalis got 13 per cent vote share and led from only 9 Assembly segments only.
Based on its Parliamentary performance, the BJP is sounding robustly ambitious about Punjab. The BJP’s stance of asserting that it will contest the 2027 elections alone, despite several leaders suggesting an alliance with the Akalis, appears to be based on the optimism generated by the Parliamentary election results. It is difficult to make out whether the party will be able to repeat and improve the 2024 performance as the situation and circumstances in 2027 will be different. There will be no Modi factor and nor Ram Mandir issue anymore.
The BJP is trying to build up the narrative of “double engine” government in Punjab like in other states. The sentiment is reverberated in certain quarters that only a “friendly” government at the Centre can help Punjab come out of all problems it is faced with, particularly the whopping debt of about Rs 4 lakh crores. How far that appeal goes across and convinces the electorate remains to be seen.
Modi’s Dalit outreach will be a serious challenge for both the ruling Aam Aadmi Party and the Opposition Congress. The Congress in fact will have to be more concerned since the Doaba region has so far remained its stronghold. The party could withstand the 2022 AAP tsunami in Doaba region primarily because majority of the Dalits went along with it.
This was also because of Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit who was appointed chief minister by the Congress in 2021 after removing Capt Amarinder Singh. The AAP also has got immense support from the Dalit community and if the BJP manages to make some inroads, which in all likelihood it appears it will, it will be a greater challenge for the ruling party in Punjab.
The BJP seems to be trying to replicate the Haryana model in Punjab. In Haryana, it consolidated its hold over the non-Jaat sections of the society, including the Punjabis, Dalits and OBCs who include Sainis and Ahirs. Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini belongs to the OBC community. At the same time, the BJP has made some significant inroads into the Jaat constituency also that is how it saw itself through for the third consecutive term in Haryana.
Punjab is slightly different. While the caste dynamics may be similar, the Jatt Sikh community in Punjab is more ambitious and aspirational. Keeping it out of power and also making it realise so may have its own consequences, which must be avoided. The BJP has not enjoyed a largely cordial relationship with the community, primarily due to the three farm laws, which the Jatt Sikh community, whose overwhelming majority is into farming, took against itself.
While in 2022 the BJP and its leaders were treated like pariahs across Punjab, particularly in the rural areas, things seem to be quite different and better for the saffron party now. The Dalit push will further consolidate the party's position ahead of the 2027 elections.
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