modi-s-hat-trick-looks-more-likely-2024-isn-t-2004

In all probability and all likelihood Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to score a hat-trick on June 4, when the votes will be counted for the 2024 General Elections. 

 

This is even though he has been there already for ten years, a period during which the anti-incumbency sentiment does normally creep in, not just amongst the neutral and swing voters, but even among the traditional supporters. 

 

Modi for sure seems to have beaten all that.

 

One of the strongest points going in favour of Modi is that the opposition has nothing against him in person or as the head of the government. 

There has not been any corruption or any other scandal that came to the notice during the last ten years. His critics in the opposition may claim that since he has gagged or purchased the entire media, nothing can be reported. 

 

But this is a silly reason. Such things cannot be hidden. And it is not that nobody is criticising Modi, whether inside or outside the country.

Well-known media organisations in India and abroad have quite regularly reported against Modi, even resorting to personal attacks. 

 

The fact is that there is a real “feel good” factor prevailing in the country. 

 

It is not that Modi is the main scriptwriter or it all started in 2014 when Modi took over as the Prime Minister of the country. 

 

But, as The Economist reported recently, “Modi deserves credit for forcing through stalled reforms”.

 

It has been a consistent, continuous and sustained effort of so many governments in the pre-and post-economic reforms era. When PV Narasimha Rao, India’s legendary Prime Minister, introduced economic reforms in 1991 when the country was on the brink of bankruptcy, he was widely and rightly hailed. 

 

When Ms Indira Gandhi during the 1960s and 1970s introduced her reforms like “bank nationalisation” and the abolition of “privy purses” of the erstwhile rulers of princely states, she was also hailed the same way. 

 

The point here is that the two respective Prime Ministers did what was the need of the hour. 

 

Modi consolidated the achievements of the economic reforms, which were started by Rao and further strengthened by his successors like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Dr Manmohan Singh. Singh, an eminent economist of international repute, happened to be the Finance Minister chosen specially by Rao for the job of initiating and executing the reforms. 

 

Modi has managed to maintain the tempo of reforms, although he did commit a grave economic blunder when he announced demonetisation in November 2016 breaking the back of the small and medium industries and trade. 

 

Even the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime, which his government introduced and was deemed to be a revolutionary thing since Independence, has not yielded the desired results. But the country and its people, including the majority of those who were affected by demonetisation and GST, are still prepared to give another chance to Modi as nobody doubts his intentions. 

 

There is a global trend in identity politics and nationalism. It is prevailing in the United States and Europe. The same is the case with India. Modi has successfully managed to intertwine the two; economic prosperity with strong nationalism. No matter what his critics may say, people in India perceive India to be stronger in world affairs under Modi’s leadership. That makes them feel proud. 

 

As the 2024 General Elections are under process, the opposition alliance led by the Congress is hoping against the hope to replace Modi, drawing misplaced parallels with the 2004 General Elections. 

 

That time, like Modi is now, Vajpayee was at the peak of his popularity. There was nothing against him. There was a “feel good” factor prevailing everywhere. The “India Shining” campaign orchestrated by the late Pramod Mahajan was seen to have hit the nail on the head. 

 

Vajpayee’s advisors, particularly Mahajan, were so overconfident that they got elections advanced by six months, much against the wishes of Vajpayee. And the worst happened. 

 

Vajpayee lost and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance took over and Dr Manmohan Singh became the Prime Minister for another ten years, till 2014 when he was replaced by Modi. 

 

But, 2024 is not like 2004. The BJP is much stronger, much more deeply rooted and much more spread across the country now than it was in 2004. 

 

The opposition at that time was very strong and Congress was far more stronger then than it is now. There were opposition stalwarts like Harkishen Singh Surjeet of the CPM, K Karunanidhi of the DMK, Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party, Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Lok Dal and others, who held a lot of clouts. Everyone else other than Lalu Prasad, is dead. Lalu is also not in his best physical and political health either. To expect 2024 to be a repeat of 2004 is just wishful thinking of the opposition bloc nothing more. 

 

Much against their tradition of relentless hostility and compulsive criticism, even Western media organisations have started acknowledging Modi’s achievements. The Economist in its latest edition reported, “India, the world’s fastest-growing big country, is expanding at an annual rate of 6-7%. New data show private-sector confidence at its highest since 2010. Already the fifth-largest economy, it may rank third by 2027, after America and China”.

 

It went on to add, “India’s clout is showing up in new ways. American firms have 1.5m staff in India, more than in any other foreign country”.

 

It said, “Rising wealth means more geopolitical heft. After the Houthis disrupted the Suez Canal, India deployed ten warships in the Middle East. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have courted it without disputing that it will remain an independent actor”.

 

The Economist also revealed that “the share of the population living on less than $2.15 a day in 2017 prices, a global measure of poverty, has fallen below 5% from 12% in 2011”.

 

The Economist says, Modi “deserves credit for forcing through stalled reforms, personally overseeing key decisions and browbeating laggards and opponents in the bureaucracy. Some say he has fostered crony capitalism.

 

Yet although some big firms get favours, concentration in business is falling, corruption has waned and business boasts a rich diversity”. This is quite in stark contrast to what the opposition parties have been alleging that he handed over the country to Adani and Ambani. 

 

With such strong credentials and fundamentals in his support even acknowledged by his worst critics, Prime Minister Modi does look headed for a hat-trick. Rest, it is up to the voters. Eventually, in a democracy, the voter is the master and the final arbiter.