Bihar voters are politically most aware in the country. They are the trendsetters. Bihar is the epicentre of politics in India. Although not exactly the same words, that is what Congress leader Rahul Gandhi used to iterate and reiterate in his speeches about Bihar while expressing confidence that they will replace the NDA government with the grand alliance (Mahagathbandhan) government. Now Gandhi cannot back off from what he said about the people of Bihar. His only alibi for his devastating defeat remains the “vote theft”, that he calls “vote-chori”, which undoubtedly does not have many buyers.
In fact, Gandhi appears to have already prepared the ground for the same, ahead of the Bihar elections. When he addressed that “press conference” where he claimed to have blasted off a “hydrogen” bomb about Haryana elections, while concluding his arguments, he said, soon he may have to come with a similar press conference making similar “revelations” (read allegations), about Bihar also.
For sure, he will. He already has a peg to hang on to—that of the removal of about 25 lakh voters from the electoral rolls during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). The Congress leader plans well in advance as to how he has to deal with defeat. First, he would blame the electronic voting machines. Now he has come to the argument of “vote theft”.
As the National Democratic Alliance looks to be heading for an emphatic victory winning a record over 200 of the 243 assembly seats, the Congress might be searching for answers. More than that it will need to go for deep introspection. The Congress contested 61 seats only, nine less than it contested in 2020. Its tally came down drastically from 19 seats it had won last time. Had it contested independently without an alliance with anyone, particularly the Rashtriya Janata Dal, it may have done better. It is the RJD baggage that has sunk the Congress beyond any hope of redemption.
The party must accept and admit that the RJD cannot get rid of the ‘jungle raj’ tag that has become integral to it. Not that there was zero crime during the NDA rule under Nitish Kumar, the level of crime was far less. There are no organised criminal gangs and even if there are any criminals, they do not enjoy any political patronage. The ‘jungle raj’ fear of the RJD days still haunts the common Biharis. This was revealed during the run up to the elections also. People were not very happy with Nitish, but they had nothing against him, while they had fears about the return of ‘jungle raj’ under the RJD. They did not opt to take any risks.
RJD is still identified with Lalu Prasad Yadav, who has been convicted and sentenced in multiple corruption cases. This was the double whammy for the Congress to align with someone like him. The Congress just could not combat the narrative of crime and corruption that has got registered with the people of Bihar.
There, of course, are some other factors also which played in favour of the ruling alliance. Financial assistance of Rs 10,000 to women, besides ban on liquor in the state has helped the NDA to win over the majority of women voters, who appear to have risen above caste and sectarian divide.
This should also serve as a lesson for the Congress that welfare measures, as they reach everyone irrespective of caste, creed or community, do deliver better dividends than promises like “caste census” or fear mongering about “constitution in danger”.
Also read: Caste still being used as a political weapon
One of the major takeaways of the Bihar elections has been that the people of the state have clearly and categorically rejected the idea of "caste census". That the idea has been rejected by a state where caste is assumed to be the most dominant factor, should make the Congress rethink and rework on the idea. Besides, he has also been asserting to remove the “50 per cent ceiling” on reservations and make it proportionate to the population. This is something the huge and influential middle class in India does not like or want. Bihar, despite having a lot of poverty, does have a significant presence of the middle class.
For the Congress, this must serve as a lesson at the national level as well. Now it is more than clear that people just do not change the government because it has been there for such a long time. Unless and until they do not find a better alternative, people do not want to take any risk and experiment with the unknown. In Bihar the problem for the opposition was complex. Not only had the people “not much against” Nitish, they were at the same time apprehensive of the way the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan government would govern.
The same holds true about the Centre, as well. The Congress cannot rest on the self-assurance that people of India will eventually get fed up with the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and give the party (the Congress) a chance. No, that is quite unlikely to happen. The Congress has not been able to provide any alternative.
For the NDA, the landslide victory in Bihar will serve as a great morale booster ahead of the four crucial assembly elections scheduled for next year in the states of Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. A victory to wrap up the year 2025, ahead of 2026 assembly elections is the best thing to happen for the party. But those elections are going to be quite challenging, particularly in West Bengal and Assam, while in Kerala and Tamil Nadu the party does not have any major stakes.
The emphatic Bihar win, for which Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Nitish deserve credit, will also help to strengthen the stability of the NDA government at the Centre.
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