It is a MODIfied Nitish Kumar now. The big news leaping the national headlines is that Nitish Kumar, the chief architect of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance formed to unseat Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 parliamentary elections, has shifted allegiance towards Modi.
JD (U) boss Nitish Kumar today performed his favourite somersault of changing political consort after he resigned as CM of JD(U)-RJD-Congress government and said goodbye to the I.N.D.I.A. alliance. He is set to form the government along with the BJP.
The juries are still out on whether such a change of consort will politically help the BJP and Nitish Kumar in the longer run. But it has come not as a provincial but a national tremor for the I.N.D.I.A. alliance because it is capable of spinning a narrative that even the architect of the anti-Modi alliance now believes that after Ram temple the popularity of Modi is all-time high and such motley alliances are going to deliver dud only.
The BJP is aware that despite the credibility of Nitish Kumar facing many a dent he is crucial for the consolidation of votes of the Extremely Backward Community (EBC) in Bihar. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, the BJP-led NDA alliance had won 31 out of 40 seats.
This was the time when Nitish Kumar, nourishing prime ministerial ambitions had quit the NDA and opened a battle front against Modi whom the BJP had declared its prime ministerial face. The poll results shocked and shunted Nitish Kumar, however, he netted 16 per cent votes of EBC in the 2014 elections.
In 2019, Nitish Kumar was in the NDA when the BJP-led NDA alliance won 39 out of 40 seats.
If political pundits are to be believed then the internal survey of the BJP indicated a split of EBC votes in Bihar that could negatively impact the total seat projection of the NDA in Bihar in the upcoming parliamentary polls.
However, opinion differs on whether Nitish Kumar will be a burden or a boon for the BJP in its grand scheme of things. But given the fact that the INDIA alliance and Rahul Gandhi pitched for the caste census to blunt development and the Hindutva narrative of the BJP, the entry of Nitish Kumar into the NDA fold is a gain.
After all, it was Nitish Kumar who started the trend of caste surveys to demand a greater share of the backward class in government jobs and developmental schemes. This new dynamics of OBC politics churned through caste surveys had made the BJP uncomfortable for the time being. The departure of Nitish Kumar has blunted the edge that the opposition has acquired.
"The politics in Bihar is driven by caste. When Nitish Kumar conducted a caste survey in Bihar which other non-NDA ruled states followed or promised to do, it was a careful strategy to blunt BJP's OBC politics nationally and create a division in BJP's vote bank.
Travesty for I.N.D.I.A. alliance is that the man who was the idea behind caste census/survey to throw a challenge before Modi is today standing on the opposite side of the fence", said a senior leader of Bihar who was once with Nitish Kumar.
It was not the BJP that needed Nitish Kumar, he equally needed the BJP. Nitish Kumar was not sure about his political future after 2024 and the Bihar assembly poll scheduled in 2025. No matter, how and when Nitish Kumar forged an alliance with his bete noir Lalu Prasad Yadav against the BJP and formed the government in Bihar, but this was a marriage of convenience.
Lalu Prasad was increasingly pressurising Nitish Kumar to vacate the post of Chief Minister for his son Tejashwi Yadav who served as deputy CM in his government. Resisting the pressure Nitish Kumar was not sure about his political fate as well as his party since he sensed that Lalu Prasad would politically decimate and devour him politically sooner or later.
Nitish Kumar is a man of ambition who aspired to be the top political post in the country. Rahul Gandhi may have given the opposition alliance an acronym but it was Nitish Kumar who brought together opposition parties across the country against the NDA. But the Congress hijacked the platform to launch Rahul Gandhi.
They sidelined Nitish Kumar who can’t tolerate anyone encroaching upon and spoiling political ambition and position. In Bihar Lalu Prasad and the Congress were not ready to give much parliamentary seats to Nitish Kumar.
MPs of his party told Nitish Kumar in no uncertain terms that the mood of the nation is with Modi and his (Nitish Kumar) popularity has plummeted due to his party siding with the RJD and the Congress.
Troubles have been brewing in the power portal of Bihar for the last couple of months and Nitish Kumar was waiting for the right moment to desert the company of Lalu Prasad Yadav of the RJD and his son Tejashwi Yadav besides the Congress.
The tension escalated after the Narendra Modi government announced Bharat Ratna to former Bihar CM and prominent OBC leader Karpoori Thakur. Nitish Kumar congratulated Modi and said that the PM can rightly take credit for honouring this son of the soil of Bihar. Nitish Kumar indirectly took a potshot on Lalu Prasad by dynastic politics.
Lalu’s daughter Rohini Acharya made a quick riposte and taunted that some people who claim to be socialist are in the habit of changing sides. However, she deleted her X posts following a snub by her father who did not want to give any opportunity to Nitish Kumar to desert the alliance.
But Nitish Kumar took it otherwise and made his displeasure known. Lalu Prasad deputed Shivanand Tiwari and the Congress national president twice unsuccessfully tried to contact Nitish Kumar to defuse the crisis. But Nitish Kumar had made up his mind to quit the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.
After Mamata Banerjee and Bhagwant Mann, this is the third massive blow to the I.N.D.I. alliance where powerful regional satraps are either shutting the door upon the Congress or distancing themselves from the alliance.
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